• The Euro continues to fall during the trading session on Thursday, and I'm watching this pair very closely because it is a bit of a proxy, if you will, for the US dollar index.
• We currently find ourselves at the 50 day EMA and for a currency that was supposed to fall apart, the US dollar doesn't seem to be doing that at this point in time.
• I have been hearing a lot of calls for the US dollar to implode, which is typically the bottom for it.
   

Not a Major Inflection Point. Yet.

We're not quite at the point where I would call a major inflection point and the market's going to roll over. But it's starting to raise some suspicion here as to whether or not it may do that. I can use a couple of different things perhaps to get an idea as to when things change. There is a trend line that I can draw here that I think probably represents a good break of structure, especially if we break down below 1.16, then I think the Euro is in trouble. After all, the top was during the FOMC rate cut. The US dollar has strengthened by about 200 pips since then. Now, granted, that doesn't change the trend, but this is screaming a message.
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

When you switch over to the weekly chart, last week's candlestick was a massive shooting star. So, the question is, will 1.16 hold because it's been massive support. I think we will find out in the next few trading sessions whether or not it does.
 

I'll be watching this very closely because if we fall towards 1.16 and bounce hard, then I think the uptrend could continue. However, if we slice through it, things could get ugly. And on top of that, if the U.S. dollar strengthens here, it'll strengthen pretty much everywhere.

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