The Euro continues to do very little, although it should be kept in the back of your mind that the last couple of days has been greatly influenced by the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. With the Americans out of the market, there is not a lot of liquidity during certain parts of the day, and therefore it’s worth taking all this with a grain of salt.
 

NFP Data Due This Friday

The fact that we cannot break above the 200-Day EMA during holiday trading is probably not a huge surprise, and it’s also worth noting that the 1.04 level has offered a significant amount of resistance. Nonetheless, we have not seen any type of major breakdown either, so there’s not a lot to read from this quite yet. The market could be very noisy over the next couple of days, as people trying to discern what the Federal Reserve is going to do going forward. With the Friday jobs coming, it’s possible that we may see a bit of sideways and choppy trading during the course of the next several sessions, with some type of decisive move then. After all, if employment remains very hot, then it’s possible that you could see the markets try to price in a very stubbornly hawkish Federal Reserve.

On the other hand, if the jobs never come out showing signs of slowing down, it’s likely that the Euro will take off to the upside. After all, the ECB is probably going to have to remain somewhat hawkish, despite the fact that European growth is but a pipe dream at this point. Ultimately, this is a situation where we could be forming a bullish flag, so that will of course be paid close attention to.
 

EUR/USD Trading Outlook

• If the market were to break down below the 1.03 level, that could negate all of that, and therefore a lot of people will be paying attention to that level as well.
• I think the one thing you can probably count on in the short term is going to be a lot of volatile chops, as the market is trying to figure out what to do with itself over the next several days.
• If we do break out to the upside, the longer-term target might be closer to 1.06, but we have a lot of wood to chop between now and then.

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