• EUR/USD recovers to 1.1822
• Trading in 1.1800-1.2072 range
• US partial shutdown delayed key data
• Dollar supported by Warsh, macro-data
• Two Fed rate cuts still priced in for 2026

The major currency pair is engaged in recovery attempts. On Wednesday, EUR/USD strengthened to 1.1822.
 

On the daily chart, trading in the EUR/USD pair remains within the logical range of 1.1800-1.2072.

The dollar index is holding near the 97.4 mark. It has paused after its recent rise. Market caution is linked to the partial U.S. government shutdown, which led to the postponement of key macroeconomic data releases.

Data on job openings and the January labor market report, scheduled for this week, were delayed. Investors once again lack clear signals on the state of U.S. employment.

U.S. President Donald Trump signed a budget of $1.2 trillion. This has ended the partial shutdown, however, the issue of funding for the Department of Homeland Security remains unresolved.

In previous sessions, the dollar received support following the nomination of Kevin Warsh for the position of Fed Chair. The market perceives him as a less "dovish" candidate compared to alternatives. An additional factor was strong U.S. industrial data, which reduced expectations for a rapid easing of monetary policy.

Nevertheless, markets are still pricing in two Fed rate cuts this year—likely in June and October.

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