EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Remains bearish.
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1590 – 1.1550 – 1.1470.
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1680 – 1.1740 – 1.1800.
   

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EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy the EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1540, target 1.1800, and stop loss 1.1470.
• Sell the EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1730, target 1.1600, and stop loss 1.1800.
   

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

By the end of last week's trading, the Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) maintained stability, finding support near the 1.1600 level before bouncing back to around 1.1647. Weaker-than-expected US inflation data limited demand for the US Dollar. According to platforms of reliable trading companies, the EUR/USD pair settled near 1.1620 by the end of the week, with stronger PMI figures from the Eurozone providing additional support.
 

Declining US Inflation Strengthens Price Range

Based on economic calendar data, the latest US Consumer Price figures came in slightly below expectations, strengthening the market's conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates at its meeting this week. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in September, bringing the annual rate to 3.0% from 2.9%, just shy of the 3.1% consensus forecast. Core CPI also came in below expectations, rising 0.2% month-on-month and slowing to 3.0% year-on-year. Market experts commented on the announced figures: "The headline inflation figure was slightly weaker than expected. Consequently, the US Dollar saw a sell-off on the news, although markets were quite confident about Fed cuts in October and December." They added, "As these cuts are already priced in, this sudden Dollar weakness may not persist."

In general, markets are fully pricing in a 50 basis point (bps) easing by the end of the year, and in the absence of available jobs data, it will be difficult to speculate much beyond the December meeting.

On the European side, the Eurozone PMI data came in stronger than expected, reassuring growth momentum and helping the euro consolidate its gains.

From a technical perspective for the EUR/USD pair, price movements still appear to be part of a range-bound trading phase. The implied volatility for EUR/USD has dropped to an 11-month low, with a warning that given the current geopolitical environment, a continuation of this calm should not be heavily relied upon. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is stable around the 45 reading, confirming the bearish bias and preparation for stronger losses before the technical indicator reaches the oversold extreme. At the same time, the MACD lines are firmly trending downwards. Today, amidst the absence of influential US economic releases, the Euro's trading will be affected by the announcement of the German IFO Index reading at 11:00 AM (Egypt time).
 

Trade tensions will affect currency rates.

On another front that will influence currency price directions in the coming days, trade headlines will add further uncertainty. US President Trump confirmed that his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled for this week, even as talks with Canada were suddenly suspended. According to economists, expectations are very high for the Trump-Xi meeting, with a high probability of a significant calming down following the direct encounter. Investors are accustomed to the pattern of threats followed by concessions.

But for readers planning to buy the euro or US dollar, the recent volatility highlights how quickly sentiment can shift based on key data and trade headlines. Contact us to discuss your euro buying needs. Overall, the euro's hold above 1.16 confirms that while the Fed's rate cut is largely priced in, volatility could rise again as traders consider the upcoming monetary policy statement and any new developments in US-China relations.
 

Trading Tips:

Keep in mind that the EUR/USD price will remain in a narrow range pending the market and investor reaction to the US Federal Reserve announcement this week, followed by the outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting.

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