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EUR/USD has grown to 1.0310. This is the high since 4 July 2022.

The euro is supported by the market interest in risk and strong confidence that the US Federal Reserve System in its December meeting will take a pause and increase the interest rate by fewer base points than before. For now, expectations concerning the rate and the speed of the tightening of the US monetary policy are crucial factors.

As for the drivers for the euro itself, they are ridiculously few. The economy of the Eurozone is expected to have grown by 3.2% in 2022. Yet in 2023 it is forecast to slow down by 0.4%.

On H4, EUR/USD has completed a wave of growth to 1.0360. Today the market is forming a consolidation range under this level. With an escape downwards, a wave of decline to 1.0173 is expected to start. After this level is reached, a link of growth to 1.0250 is expected to start, followed by a decline to 1.0000. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD: its signal line is at the highs, preparing to begin a decline to zero.

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On H1, the pair has completed a wave of growth to 1.0360. At the moment, it is forming a consolidation range beneath it. An escape downwards to 1.0255 is 3xpected. After this level is reached, a link of growth to 1.0320 is not excluded, followed by a decline to 1.0141, from where the wave may continue to 1.0000. Technically, the scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is nearly 20, preparing to grow to 50. A bounce off it downwards and a return to 20 are expected.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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