Elliott Wave: Can FED's Cuts Send Dollar To 100 Or Lower?

We have a very important week ahead, with the much-anticipated interest rate decision from the Fed. The focus is not just on whether they will cut rates, but by how much—will it be 25 or 50 basis points? A 25 basis point cut could strike a balance between inflation concerns and potential recession fears, especially considering recent unemployment figures weren’t that bad, and CPI also softened as expected last week. Keep in mind that the dollar has moved lower over the last few weeks, and if we see a 25 basis point cut, the dollar could gain slightly. However, if the Fed opts for a 50 basis point cut, we expect the dollar to continue its downward trend immidiately.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, I certianly think that the dollar's will break lower, though there could be some intraday rallies in the meantime. Also, lets not forget on the stock market; it has performed well, with a nice rebound last week,while US yields continue to press lower. So, risk-on sentiment is here and it may not be over just yet. Also let's not forget on the euro which has recovered after last week's ECB rate decision. So everything seem to be pointing to dollar decline to 100.

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