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The dollar index fell by about 0.1% against the major global currencies as economic data pointing to a weakening economic structure while a hawkish tone by Fed officials still keeps the greenback supportive for this week.

Probabilities showing another rate hike of about 25 bps in the next meeting in May while the ECB seemingly plans two more rate increases in the Euro Area which supports the euro, possible due to the rate-hike gab difference for today’s particular session. Interest rate cuts are expected around November to December in the US this Year as Fed officials point to a higher terminal rate of about 5.50% and 5.75% as they see inflation still concerning and mention another possible rate hike followed by a pause.

Business activity in the US Mid-Atlantic region fell more than expected in April, according to the Philadelphia Fed report. Labor Department data showed that jobless claims came in higher than previously with 245,000, an increase of about 5000 which points to a possible weakening labor market – negative economic data which concerns towards a recession might prompt the central bank to a dovish tone and projection easing of the current tightening cycle which would be supportive for the equities and commodities sector by a possible lower dollar.

The dollar index trades up with about 0.3% for this week by the mentioned monetary reasons, inside of the technical Quarter’s developing value area and might establish a balanced price range with current selling around the Year’s lower value extreme. Short-term to median-term perspective sees a bearish dollar while further interest rate hikes and hawkish remarks might support the greenback towards a pullback.

Current calculations for the monthly interval are slightly bullish, due to the monetary plan while any dovish hints might hit the market with selling which would soar equities higher. Current technical perspective on the daily interval hits a supportive level with the Quarter’s VWAP as buying level, depending on the further auction process. 

Gold benefits of the current lower dollar as the market rose by about 0.6% in today’s session after a pullback which led core buyers to add to their positions due to concerns of a recession while higher interest rates might pressure the precious metal.

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