Markets have been happy to sell the dollar recently on the narrative that the US is seeing slowing economic data, inflation is falling, and the prospect of federal reserve interest rate cuts is growing ever closer. This dollar weakness is expected to continue as long as the Federal Reserve doesn’t signal any more rate hikes. Furthermore, the recent dollar weakness is the unwinding of some very stretched dollar long positions.
As investors consider the path of US rates we may very well see an acceleration/continuation of dollar selling and a further unwinding of stretched dollar long positions. This will also be on keeping with the seasonal weakness in the USD we see around year end. With the dollar falling over 60% of the time from November 28 to December 31st, and an average return of nearly 1% in falls, now is the time to watch for decent opportunities to sell dollar rallies.
The main risk here is obvious the incoming inflation data and GDP data for the US remains strong and we start to see Bond buyers retreat, then we could see a continuation of dollar strength. So all eyes are on the Fed and the incoming US data for this outlook, but keep in mind the strong seasonal bias to sell the dollar.
The major trade risk here is from a return to rate hikes from the Fed which would support the USD. Also, strong worries about a US recession could also send the USD higher.
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
