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Most major money centers have reopened after May Day public holidays, Wall Street traded in a tight range given the lower overall volumes, and Asian equity markets are mixed as investors are positioning for a slew of Central bank meetings for the week ahead. Overnight the Reserve Bank of Australia got the central bank ball rolling by making a surprise 25bps move raising the headline rate to 3.85% the bank also suggested that further hikes remain on the table for future meetings.

For European investors focus will be on the final meaningful data inputs ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. First up will be the ECB’s quarterly Bank lending figures, these will be parsed for any signals as to lending stress given the recent banking crisis and more broadly any implications for credit conditions within the Eurozone economy. Inflation data comes from Eurostat, individual national inputs would imply the possibility of a modest uptick in April's data after the steep decline seen in March, markets are expecting a circa 7% print, principally driven by energy-associated base effects. Core inflation ex energy and food, is believed to pull back from 5.7% to 5.6%, representing the first decline in 12 months. PMI data for both the UK and the Eurozone is likely to confirm flash estimates and remain entrenched in contractionary territory, with manufacturing anchored below the pivotal 50 level. This morning's data, unless a meaningful miss or upside surprise occurs, is unlikely to move the ECB off course, the main query for investors is whether the ECB moves by 25bps or 50bps, markets are in the main leaning towards a 25bps move this week but any material signs of inflationary pressure exceeding expectations will likely make 50bps a lock for Thursday.

Stateside, today marks the beginning of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting, markets are pricing another 25bps move, pricing implies a 90% probability. On the data front, job openings are set to reach pre-pandemic highs, while durable goods numbers are also penciled in for a rise. ADP employment and ISM services will be released tomorrow before the FOMC rate announcement, then investor focus will shift to Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls data along with the re-emergence of a bevy of central bank speakers as the blackout periods end.
 

FX Options Expiries For 10 am New York Cut 

(In bold represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

• EUR/USD: 1.0960 (1.2BLN), 1.0975 (680M), 1.0990-1.1000 (1.5BLN)

• 1.1050 (500M)

• GBP/USD: 1.2300 (375M), 1.2610 (356M). EUR/GBP: 0.8775 (338M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6600 (300M), 0.6625 (402M), 0.6700-15 (1.4BLN)

• USD/CAD: 1.3750 (412M). USD/JPY: 137.70 (204M)
   

CFTC Data As Of 21/04/28

• USD net spec short near unchanged in Apr 19-25 period, Yen sellers most active
• EUR$ +0.02% in period specs +5,039 contracts now long 169,400
• EUR long largest since mid-Oct '20, $-equivalent more than 2x other pairs
• $JPY -0.26% in period, specs -11,875 contracts, short grows to 68,744
• GBP$ -0.11% in period, specs +4,537, now +5,839 as BoE-Fed diverge on rates
• CAD specs +2.4k short now 43,791, AUD specs +2,894 contracts now -39,462
• BTC -8.02% in period, specs +196 contracts now short 293 (Source RTRS)
   

Overnight News of Note

• Asia Stocks On Edge As Traders Cautious On Central Bankers
• Investors Warn Of First Republic Aftershocks At Gloomy Gathering
• Biden Eyes Tapping Jefferson For Fed Vice Chair, Kugler For Board
• Biden Sets High-Stakes Debt-Limit Meeting As Deal Deadline Nears
• Treasury Risk Running Out Of Cash As Soon As June, Yellen Warns
• US Debt-Cap Fight To Restrain Auction Sizes Even As Deficit Grows
• US FDIC Weigh More Business Deposit Insurance After Banks Fail
• Australia Unexpectedly Raises Key Rate, Sending Currency Higher
• North Asia’s Factories Stuck In Decline While Global Growth Stalls
• IMF Says China Shifting On Debt Restructuring After Being Burned
• Russia Near Milestone Of Buying Yuan Soon As Sanctions Hit Eases
• UK Shop Price Inflation Decreases For First Time In 2023, BRC Says
• Morgan Stanley Plans 3,000 More Job Cuts As Dealmaking Slumps

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
 

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4140

• Primary support is 4000
• Primary objective is 4207
• Below 3985 opens 3950
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

EURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0990

• Primary support  is 1.07
• Primary objective is 1.1128
• Below 1.0700 opens 1.0660
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

GBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2410

• Primary support  is 1.2250
• Primary objective 1.2659
• Below 1.22 opens 1.2010
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

USDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 136.50

• Primary support  is 134
• Primary objective is 18.80
• Above 137.30 opens 138
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .6685

• Primary resistance  is .6750
• Primary objective is .6565
• Above .6775 opens .6825
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

BTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 28000

• Primary support 26500
• Primary objective is 30500
• Below 26300 opens 25800
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

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