Daily Market Outlook - Tuesday, June 27

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Asian equity markets had a mixed performance overnight as the risk sentiment gradually improved following a mostly negative performance in the US market. The major indices in the US were subdued as the quarter-end approached, with the Nasdaq underperforming due to weakness in the technology and communications sectors. The Nikkei 225 index experienced pressure, extending its pullback from the 33K handle. Speculation increased that the recent weakness in the currency could prompt the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to make adjustments to its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. On the other hand, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong Shanghai Composite index both rose. Hong Kong's market was led by gains in the technology and property sectors, supported by the People's Bank of China's continued liquidity efforts. Additionally, Premier Li pledged to implement effective policy measures, and there were reports of US Treasury Secretary Yellen planning a trip to China early next month, indicating potential positive developments in US-China relations.

With major central bank updates now behind us, the focus in the market shifts towards seeking further guidance from policymakers regarding future interest rate decisions. The European Central Bank is currently hosting its annual forum, featuring speakers from the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve. Tomorrow's panel, including the Bank of England's Bailey, is expected to be a highlight. Today, ECB President Lagarde's opening comments are eagerly awaited for insights into future euro rate developments. Additionally, BoE policymakers Tenreyro and Dhingra, who dissented from last week's UK rate hike, are scheduled to speak today. Tenreyro will argue that recent inflationary pressures have been driven primarily by temporary supply-side shocks that are expected to ease. Dhingra will address the Women in Economics network.

Stateside, durable goods orders for May are anticipated to show a sharp decline, largely influenced by volatility in the transportation sector. However, orders from other durable goods producers are projected to have a modest increase compared to the previous month, although still below last year's levels, indicating the challenges faced by manufacturing sectors worldwide. On a positive note, non-defense capital goods orders and shipments have experienced significant growth since the beginning of the year, potentially driven by incentives provided by the Biden administration to promote green investment. US consumer confidence measures continue to lag behind pre-Covid levels, likely reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates. The June reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment indicator showed a larger-than-expected rebound from the low recorded in May but remained below the levels seen at the beginning of the year. Today, the Conference Board's consumer confidence reading for June is also expected to show an increase, although it should be noted that the two measures do not always move in sync.

CFTC Data As Of 23-06-23

  • (USD net spec short grew in Jun 14-20 period; $IDX -0.76%
  • EUR$ +1.15% in period, specs -7,173 contracts into strength, now +144,649
  • $JPY +1.31% in period, JPY soft amid rate divergence, specs -3,680 contracts
  • GBP$ +1.21%, specs get long ahead of CPI/BoE, +39,873 contracts now +46,608
  • Specs guessed right higher CPI, +50bp BoE but GBP$ -150 pips from weeks high
  • AUD$ +0.3% in period, specs +12,129 contracts on hawkish RBA, now -33.5k
  • BTC +8.96%, specs 346 contracts into strength, halved long to +397 contractsSource: Reuters)

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.0875 (592M), 1.0895-1.0905 (1.3BLN), 1.0910-15 (1.3BLN)
  • 1.1000 (611M)
  • USD/CHF: 0.9000 (468M) . GBP/USD: 1.2590-1.2600 (412M)
  • EUR/GBP: 0.8570 (190M), 0.8600 (315M), 0.8650 (401M), 0.8700 (312M)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6685-90 (638M), 0.6725 (300M)

Overnight News of Note

  • ECB, Peers Must Raise Hike Rates Further, IMF’s Gopinath Says
  • Yellen Plans July China Trip While US Readies Investment Curbs
  • China Remains On Track To Hit Growth Targets, Premier Li Says
  • China Extend Fight Against Weak Yuan As Drops Unsettle PBoC
  • China’s State Banks Selling Dollars Offshore To Slow Yuan Drop
  • Japan FinMin: To Respond Appropriately If FX Moves Excessive
  • US Denies Any Role In Russia Uprising As Allies Watch And Wait
  • Putin Blasts Wagner Traitors After Prigozhin Denies Coup Attempt
  • ECB’s Simkus Says At Least One More Rate Hike Will Be Needed
  • UK Shop Price Inflation Dropped In June, Industry Figures Shows
  • Saudi Aramco Sees 'Sound' Oil Outlook On China, India Demand
  • Nvidia Bring Its AI Computing Platform To Cloud Firm Snowflake

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4340

  • Below 4330 opens 4300
  • Primary support is 4300
  • Primary objective is 4580
  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

EURUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearsih Below 1.0920

  • Below 1.0880 opens 1.0830
  • Primary support is 1.0666
  • Primary objective is 1.1050
  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

GBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.2750 

  • Below 1.27 opens 1.2650
  • Primary support  is 1.2680
  • Primary objective 1.2880
  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 142.40 Target Hit, New Pattern Emerging 

  • Below 141.90 opens 140.90
  • Primary support  is 139.50
  • Primary objective is 144.50
  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUDUSD Bias:Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below .6806

  • Below .6720  opens .6648
  • Primary support  is .648
  • Primary objective is .6917
  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

BTCUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 29500 

  • Below 28000 opens 26900
  • Primary resistance is 27400
  • Primary objective is 32750
  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

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