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Asian equity markets are trading with a subdued tone following a lackluster session on Wall Street as manufacturing survey data disappointed, after hours one of the poster childs for the banking crisis reported earnings, First Republic Bank issued earnings that surprised to the downside, which created jitters amongst investors as the shares shed another 20% after hours and left lingering concerns about further problems within the regional banking sector in the US. The Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng are both under pressure as concerns regarding the Chinese economic recovery and ongoing geopolitical tensions are keeping investors on the sidelines. The Hang Seng has surrendered the 20k handle while the mainland index has seen some support from scheduled liquidity provision from the PBOC.

The UK CBI industrial trends survey for April released this morning will give an up-to-date snapshot of factory activity. PMI’s from last week continue to point to the dichotomy between services and manufacturing sectors, a trend is seen across most major economies. In the UK manufacturing activity collapsed to a three-month low last week with order books also sparse there is little to warrant any near-term optimism for this sector. Investors will parse the report for continuing signs of a reduction in inflationary pressures this is potentially the only bright spot to be seen currently. Today's report will also cover broader investment plans for the quarter ahead which saw an uptick in January’s update. Investors will be looking for confirmation of a nascent trend developing as opposed to a one-off anomaly, however, market expectations are poised for further order book weakness.

With no tier-one data of note from the Eurozone today, investors' focus will turn Stateside for updates from Conference Board data for April, consumer confidence will provide further indications of the impact of the ongoing pressure from elevated interest rates. Consumer confidence up-ticked for the second month in a row in March but still fell short of January's upside surprise. March new home sales will also be eyed after rising throughout Q1 this year although still down 19% on a twelve-month comparison basis, investors will be keen to assess whether this is a genuine sign of a basing in the US property market as mortgage rates finally start to plateau. US investors are bracing for the start of tech giant earnings with Microsoft and Google on deck after the close of trading in the US this evening, further cost-cutting measures and AI applications are likely to see share prices rewarded.
 

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(In bold represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

• A massive 40-billion between 1.09-1.11 expire through month end
• EUR/USD: 1.1000 (1.1BLN), 1.1050-60 (2BLN), 1.1080 (875M), 1.1100 (2.2BLN)
• USD/CHF: 0.9005 (800M). 
• GBP/USD: 1.2300 (627M), 1.2550 (281M), 1.2625 (300M)
• AUD/USD: 0.6665-75 (525M), 0.6720 (467M), 0.6735 (279M), 0.6750 (350M
• NZD/USD: 0.6050 (400M), 0.6150 (816M). 
• EUR/JPY: 148.50 (301M)
• USD/JPY: 133.00 (300M), 133.35 (724M), 133.60 (327M), 134.00 (210M)
   

CFTC Data As Of 21/04/23

• USD net spec long pared slightly in Apr 12-18 period, $IDX -0.38%
• USD offered amid speculation Fed nearing end of hike cycle
• EUR$ +0.55% in period, specs +1,023 contracts now long 164,361
• $JPY +0.3% in period specs +338 contracts, now short 56,869
• GBP$ -0.04% in period, specs +3,700 contracts, flips to +1,302
• $CAD -0.56% specs +10,346 contracts, now short 46,233
• BTC +0.77% in period specs +633 contracts, short cut to 489 (Source RTRS)
   

Overnight News of Note

• Asia Stocks Mixed In Early Trade As Dollar Falls
• Gold Prices Rise On Dollar Dip; Market Eyes Fed Rate-Hike Cues
• Moody’s Warns McCarthy's Plan Meaningfully Increases Recession Likelihood
• McCarthy Refuses To Change Debt-Limit Bill Despite Republican Sceptics
• ECB’s Lane: This Is Still Not The Right Time To Stop Raising Rates
• EU And Japan Resist US Plan To Ban All G7 Exports To Russia
• China’s Politburo Likely To Shift Focus From Stimulus To Reforms
• China Seeks To Calm Storm Over Ambassador’s Ukraine Remarks
• BoJ's Ueda Vows To Keep Rates Low For Now, Signals Chance Of Future Hike
• Oil Steady After Two-Day Gain As Supply Issues Blunt Demand Woes
• Stocks Waver, Dollar Softens As Investors Weigh Earnings, Data
• First Republic To Cut A Quarter Of Jobs After Losing 40% Of Deposits
• Honeywell To Buy Back Shares Up To $10B, Maintains Dividend
• Appliance Maker Whirlpool's Results Beat On N. America Strength
• J&J To Price Shares Of Consumer Spinoff At $20 To $23 In IPO

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
 

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4100

• Primary support is 4000
• Primary objective is 4207
• Below 3985 opens 3950
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

EURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0990

• Primary support  is 1.07
• Primary objective is 1.1128
• Below 1.0700 opens 1.0660
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

GBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2410

• Primary support  is 1.2250
• Primary objective 1.2659
• Below 1.22 opens 1.2010
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

USDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 133.00

• Primary resistance  is 135.15
• Primary objective is 129.15
• Above 136 opens 137.90
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .6640

• Primary support  is .6620
• Primary objective is .6814
• Below .6560 opens .6450
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

BTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 28400

• Primary support 26500
• Primary objective is 30500
• Below 26300 opens 25800
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

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