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Asian equity markets mostly traded lower, influenced by weak global data releases, a rising yield environment, and limited guidance from the FOMC Minutes regarding future rate increases. The Nikkei 225 faced selling pressure after falling below the 33K handle. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp also declined, with Hong Kong-listed Chinese banks experiencing notable pressure. Mainland losses were mitigated ahead of US Treasury Secretary Yellen's arrival in Beijing for meetings with senior officials.

In the UK, the Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey of businesses will be released, which is closely monitored by policymakers. The report's findings on firms' pricing behaviour, inflation expectations, and wage growth will be particularly scrutinised. The survey suggests that firms' price and wage growth expectations are moderating but remain high compared to historical averages. Additionally, the UK construction PMI for June will be published, with solid growth expected in the commercial and civil engineering sectors but contraction in housebuilding activity. Retail sales figures for May in the Eurozone were expected to show modest month-on-month growth. German factory orders for May showed a significant increase but remained lower compared to a year ago. Tomorrow's German industrial production report will be closely watched for signs of further deceleration in activity, following recent weaker-than-expected outcomes and survey evidence.

Stateside the upcoming employment and ISM services data are of note on today's data docket The ADP gauge of private payrolls is expected to show a decrease to 228,000 from the previous reading of 278,000. Challenger layoffs data will also be released. The JOLTs data for May, which provides insights into job openings, is anticipated to moderate to 9.9 million from 10.1 million in April. Weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims data are expected to show a slight increase. S&P Global will release its final composite and services PMI data shortly before the release of the ISM services index for June. The ISM headline index is forecasted to rise to 51.0 from 50.3, indicating growth in the services sector. The business activity index is also expected to improve slightly to 51.9 from 51.5. The services sector has shown more resilience compared to the manufacturing sector, and analysts will be monitoring how long this resilience can be sustained, considering the manufacturing decline and the lagged impact of previous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
 

CFTC Data As Of 30-06-23

• USD IMM net spec short in the Jun 21-27 reporting period; $IDX -0.02%
• EUR$ +0.38% in period, specs stayed on sidelines +379 contracts now +145,028
• $JPY rose 1.91%, specs -5,214 contracts now -112,870 as BoJ remains steady
• Recent test of 145, tipped intervention area may stir long profit-taking
• GBP$ -0.1%, specs +5,386 contracts now +51,994 on rising UK rate view
• BTC rose 8.86%, specs sold 2,491 contracts into strength, flip to -2,094
• $CAD -0.31% in period, specs *+30,696* contracts short pared to -2,847
• AUD$ -1.49% in period, specs +10,192 contracts now -39,424
• BoC, RBA had been considering further rate hikes amid persistent inflation
• Inflation stalling has weakened CAD and AUD since Jun 21, may see recent longs lighten(Source: Reuters)
   

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

• EUR/USD: 1.0800 (450M), 1.0820 (300M), 1.0840-50 (1BLN)
• 1.0890 (775M), 1.0950 (785M)
• USD/CHF: 0.8875 (255M). GBP/USD: 1.2850 (490M)
• EUR/GBP: 0.8550 (180M), 0.8600 (220M), 0.8625 (188M)
• AUD/USD: 0.6655 (273M), 0.6675-80 (261M)
• USD/JPY: 144.00 (2.4BLN), 144.40-50 (369M), 145.00 (1.1BLN)
   

Overnight News of Note

• Minutes Revealed Some Fed Officials Supported Raising Rates In June
• Fed's Williams Says Data Supports More Action On Interest Rates
• BoE’s Dovish Talk May Have Worsened UK Inflation, Economists Say
• UK Edges Closer To Re-joining EU’s £85Bln Horizon Science Programme
• SNB’s Maechler: SNB Doesn't Rule Out Further Rate Hikes
• China Analysts: China To Prefer Near Term Structural Policy Support
• China Has Ample Tools Even In ‘Panic’ Yuan Drop, PBoC Paper Says
• Australia's Trade Surplus Swells To $11.8 Billion, Beating Forecasts
• Dollar Firms On Rate Hike Views After Fed Minutes, Yen Gains
• BlackRock Wants To Make It Cheaper To Trade Bitcoin, Larry Fink Says
• Oil Prices Steady As China Demand Fears Offset Tighter Supply Forecasts
• Stocks Slide, US Yields Climb Amid Hawkish Fed, China Tensions
• Bank Of America Increases Dividend By 9% After Fed Stress Test
• As Twitter Falters, Threads Surpasses 5 Million Sign Ups On Day One
• ExxonMobil Sees $4 Billion Earnings Hit From Gas Prices, Refining

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
 

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4412

• Below 4400 opens 4370
• Primary support is 4300
• Primary objective is 4540
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

EURUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearsih Below 1.0840

• Below 1.0840 opens 1.08
• Primary support is 1.07
• Primary objective is 1.1050
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

GBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.2650

• Below 1.26 opens 1.2550
• Primary support  is 1.26
• Primary objective 1.2880
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 143.50 

• Below 143 opens 142.30
• Primary support  is 141
• Primary objective is 145.50
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUDUSD Bias:Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below .6660

• Below .6600 opens .6550
• Primary support  is .6448
• Primary objective is .6917
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
   

BTCUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 30000 

• Below 29400 opens 28600
• Primary support  is 28400
• Primary objective is 32750
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

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