Daily Market Outlook - Thursday, Jan. 8

By Patrick Munnelly of Tickmill

Thursday, January 8, 2026 7:00 AM EST

person using black and gray laptop computer

Global government bonds and US Treasuries surged during Asian trading hours, driven by bleak US economic data and escalating geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, stocks appeared set to endure a second straight day of losses. Treasuries saw gains across the yield curve, with the 10-year benchmark yield dipping nearly 1 basis point to 4.14%. Australian bonds also climbed as the nation's central bank signalled a cautious approach to future interest rate hikes. Similarly, New Zealand's government debt saw an uptick. In Japan, bond futures continued their upward momentum after a 30-year debt auction yielded slightly better-than-expected results, despite a weaker bid-to-cover ratio. Asian stock markets shed 0.6%, while futures tied to US and European equities extended their declines. Among commodities, platinum and silver led losses in precious metals, while oil prices ticked higher as the US ramped up efforts to assert control over Venezuela. Thursday's market activity echoed rallies in UK gilts and German government bonds, as disappointing economic figures spurred traders to strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts. This came against the backdrop of record-breaking global bond sales, with borrowers rushing to meet insatiable investor demand for risk. Elsewhere, gold prices slipped for a second consecutive day as markets braced for the annual rebalancing of commodity indexes. This adjustment could potentially trigger the sale of billions of dollars in futures contracts in the coming days. Optimism on Wall Street took a hit as traders grappled with mixed economic signals and reevaluated evolving geopolitical tensions, all while keeping an eye on a surge of social media activity from the US president. Bond yields dipped across global markets. The S&P 500 edged down by 0.3% after reaching its second intraday high of 2026 just the day before, while the Nasdaq 100 struggled to maintain a small gain. Market momentum faltered following remarks from President Donald Trump, which impacted homebuilders and defence contractors. Meanwhile, Valero Energy led a rally among refiners after Trump announced that Venezuela would send millions of barrels of oil to the United States.

The U.S. data calendar is settling into a more regular rhythm, bringing a steady stream of labour market updates this week. Wednesday’s ADP report offered a small dose of reassurance with employment returning to growth, yet the 41,000 increase in jobs, though better than the slightly revised 29,000 drop in November, fell short of the 50,000 median expectation. The familiar trouble spots remain evident: small businesses only added 9,000 jobs after slashing 96,000 positions in the prior month, marking the fourth straight month of declines for this critical sector. Job creation continues to be uneven, with healthcare and education driving most of the gains, followed by leisure and hospitality. In contrast, business and professional services saw a sharp downturn, shedding jobs at the fastest rate since June. The JOLTS report painted a mixed picture, leaving interpretation open to perspective. On one hand, a rise in quits and a decline in layoffs suggest workers may feel more confident and less vulnerable to job losses. On the other hand, job openings dropped again (7.146 million, down from a downwardly revised 7.449 million), and hiring rates slipped as well (5.115 million, down from 5.368 million), reinforcing the narrative of a weak employment landscape. Complicating matters further are seasonal adjustment issues and lingering effects from the recent government shutdown, which continue to muddy the data. As for Friday’s upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, with a median forecast of 70,000, there’s little reason to believe it will provide much clarity on the labour market’s direction.

Overnight Headlines

ECB’s Pereira Says Price Stability In Place, Urges EU Reforms
RBA’s Hauser: Current Cutting Cycle Likely Over, Inflation Still High
Fed’s Bowman Floats Bank Rating, Regulatory Threshold Changes
Trump Wants To Lower Oil Prices To $50 A Barrel, Sources Say
Trump Opens New Front Against China With Brazen Arrest Of Maduro
Samsung Posts Record Profit After AI Supercharges Memory Market
JPMorgan Chase Reaches A Deal To Take Over The Apple Credit Card
US Blue-Chip Bond Sales Hit $88B, Busiest Week Since 2020
Trump Signs Order Pressing Defence Firms To Cut Buybacks
Ford Hints At Robotaxis With Plans For Eyes-Off-Road Technology
Trump’s Bid To Block Corporate Homebuying Blindsides Wall Street
AbbVie Close To Deal For Cancer Drugmaker RevMed, WSJ Says
Chevron In Talks With US To Extend Venezuela Operating Licence

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

EUR/USD: 1.1650-60 (2.4BLN), 1.1670-80 (2.1BLN), 1.1685-90 (748M)
1.1695-1.1700 (1.2BLN), 1.1745-50 (714M), 1.1800 (2.2BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.7925 (350M), 0.8035 (508M). EUR/GBP: 0.8750 (251M)
GBP/USD: 1.3400 (275M), 1.3425 (206M), 1.3465 (236M)
AUD/USD: 0.6690-0.6700 (650M), 0.6730 (1.1BLN)
USD/CAD: 1.3785 (473M), 1.3825 (200M)
USD/JPY: 156.15 (2.2BLN), 156.50-60 (1.1BLN), 157.00 (3.5BLN), 157.50 (592M), 158.00 (2BLN)