Daily Market Outlook - Thursday, Feb. 16
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European Earnings Pump The CAC 40 To Join The FTSE At Record Highs
Asian equities are mostly in the green overnight following a positive close on Wall Street as investors digested data including much stronger than expected retail sales coupled with a robust read from the New York Fed Manufacturing survey. European markets are set to open up this morning with the FTSE continuing its march higher aided by British Gas owner Centrica, posting record profits and Standard Chartered Bank announcing a $ 1 billion buyback program, the CAC40 is also set to enter record high territory as Airbus and Renault post robust earnings.
There is no tier-one econ data on the docket for the UK or the Eurozone this morning, instead, investors will focus on a bevy of central bank speakers, parsing commentary for additional information regarding rate policy across the regions. BoE Chief Economist Pill is first up, he recently remarked that he believed another increase in UK rates was the most likely next move from the MPC, markets are currently leaning towards a 25bps increase at the next meeting. The ECB President Lagarde also speaks later today additional ECB speakers on deck include Chief Economist Lane, Executive Board member Panetta, and Bundesbank Head Nagel, the ECB has coalesced around a 50bps increase at the next meeting and has been explicit to the markets about this, commentary today will be eyed with respect to the future rate glide path in the Eurozone. The European Commission recently raised its growth forecast for the region to 0.9% for 2023 and lowered its inflation forecast to 5.6%.
In the US, investors continue to digest a busy data docket this week, with today’s producer price inflation, housing data, weekly jobless claims, and the Philly Fed manufacturing survey the latest data dump. PPI inflation is penciled to retreat to 5.4% in the annualized comparison, while initial jobless claims are expected to remain anchored at record low levels, suggesting continued tightness in the US labor market landscape. Housing starts are set to buck the positive data trend, they are expected to post another decline with the sector weighed by interest rate increases, while the Philly Fed is expected to post a marginal improvement in conditions, but ultimately remain in contractionary territory. Investors will also eye comments from Fed officials Bullard & Mester set to speak on the US economic outlook later today.
FX Options Expiration New York Cut
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Overnight News of Note
- Asia Stocks Face Best Day In a Month; US Futures Up, While Dollar Falls
- Bitcoin Jumps To Highest Since August As Regulatory Concern Ebbs
- Top China Newspaper Sees Room for Cuts in Key Lending Rate, RRR
- China's New Home Prices Rise In Jan For First Time In A Year
- Japan’s Trade Deficit Smashes Record, Topping 3 Trillion Yen
- Japan’s To Hold Confirmation Hearing For BoJ Governor, Depts, Feb 24
- Australia’s Surprise Jump In Unemployment Boosts Pressure On RBA
- C.B.O. Warns Of Possible Default Between July And September
- ECB’s Lagarde Reaffirms Intention For Half-Point March Hike
- Oil Rises On China Optimism, Market Shrugs Off US Inventory Build
- Cisco Rallies After Forecast Shows Tech Spending Holding Up
- Apple Pushes Back Mixed-Reality Headset Debut Two Months
- Newcrest Rejects Newmont’s $17 Billion Takeover Offer
(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4177
- Primary support is 4005
- Primary objective is 4384
- Below 4000 opens 3965
- 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
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EURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0810
- Primary resistance is 1.0950
- Primary objective is 1.0620
- Above 1.0820 opens 1.09
- 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
(Click on image to enlarge)
GBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21
- Primary resistance is 1.2265
- Primary objective 1.1840
- Above 1.2265 opens 1.2337
- 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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USDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 133
- Primary support is 131
- Primary objective is 134.70
- Below 130.80 opens 130.11
- 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
(Click on image to enlarge)
AUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050
- Primary resistance is .7050
- Primary objective is .6750
- Above .7150 opens .7250
- 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 DayVWAP bearish
(Click on image to enlarge)
BTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 24200
- Primary support 23500
- Primary objective is 25000
- Below 20300 opens 19500
- 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
(Click on image to enlarge)
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