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Banking sector concerns are once again clouding the risk landscape as Wall Street witnessed a late-day sell-off as investors were reluctant to hold meaningful risk exposure given the pressure on regional banks. However, as was the case the day before, an overnight bid has developed driven by better-than-expected earnings numbers from Facebook parent Meta platforms. Asian equity markets are managing to maintain marginal gains with the onshore Shanghai Composite the stand-out performer as China’s State Council has announced plans to underpin employment while offering preferential loans to businesses who demonstrate expansion plans that aid in stabilizing the employment market.

European investors have another session that lacks meaningful macro drivers as the economic slate is once again scant. The Eurozone industrial confidence index is expected to nudge higher in April while the services metric is expected to retreat modestly. However, this data isn’t likely to move the needle for European Central Bank policymakers who remain anchored to a rate rise strategy at next week's ECB meeting.

Stateside, the focus will be firmly on US Q1 GDP. Investors are becoming increasingly cautious that the US’s powerhouse economy is teetering on the edge of recession, however, markets expect today's print to show a 2% annualized growth rate. The balance between inventory build-up and final demand looks set to be more positive than the numbers seen in the backend of 2022, with January’s upside surprise in consumer spending accounting for the majority of the uplift. Investors are concerned that the January surprise in consumption was an anomaly driven by unseasonal weather conditions that will be neutralized by a deceleration in consumer momentum in the back half of the last quarter.

The Bank of Japan will announce its latest monetary policy position overnight, with the inaugural meeting under new BoJ Governor Ueda. Markets are poised for the BoJ to announce a review of its ultra-easy monetary policy and its economic impact. It is widely believed that this will act as the first step on the road to reversing their monetary policy stance to start to align with the restrictive conditions employed by other major central banks. However, Ueda has indicated that he is not planning immediate moves at this meeting but investors will parse his comments for signals as to the timings of a change in the monetary policy roadmap.
 

FX Options Expiries For 10 am New York Cut 

(In bold represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

• A massive 40-billion between 1.09-1.11 expire through month end
• EUR/USD: 1.0900-10 (1BLN), 1.0975 (600M), 1.1000 (1BLN)
• 1.1040 (1BLN), 1.1125 (878M). USD/CHF: 0.8900 (400M), 0.9000 (684M)
• GBP/USD: 1.2390 (396M), 1.2410 (246M), 1.24250-40 (671M)
• USD/CAD: 1.3565-75 (921M), 1.3625 (232M)
• USD/JPY: 133.00 (786M), 133.20-35 (1.1BLN), 133.50 (304M)
• 134.00 (618M), 135.00 (1.4BLN)
   

CFTC Data As Of 21/04/23

• USD net spec long pared slightly in Apr 12-18 period, $IDX -0.38%
• USD offered amid speculation Fed nearing end of hike cycle
• EUR$ +0.55% in period, specs +1,023 contracts now long 164,361
• $JPY +0.3% in period specs +338 contracts, now short 56,869
• GBP$ -0.04% in period, specs +3,700 contracts, flips to +1,302
• $CAD -0.56% specs +10,346 contracts, now short 46,233
• BTC +0.77% in period specs +633 contracts, short cut to 489 (Source RTRS)
   

Overnight News of Note

• Republicans Pass Debt-Ceiling Bill Aiming To Spark Talks With Biden
• Goldman Says Big US Tax Haul Means Debt-Limit Deadline In July
• BoC Refrained From Hike At Last Meeting To Wait For More Evidence
• China’s Industrial Profits Keep Plunging As Prices Decline
• Former Deputy Chief Sees Chance Of BoJ Tweaking Forward Guidance
• Bank Turmoil Seen Crimping Credit At Double Powell’s Estimate
• Euro Near One-Year Peak As US Economic Risks Weigh On Dollar
• Bitcoin Extends Recent Bout Of Volatility In Climb Back Toward $30,000
• Oil Prices Find Some Support After Heavy Losses On US Recession Fears
• Meta Surges As Sales, Forecast Beat Estimates On Ad Recovery
• EBay Rises After Second-Quarter Revenue Outlook Tops Estimate
• First Republic Faces Potential Curb On Borrowing From Fed
• Samsung Flags H2 Recovery After Record Chip Loss In Q1

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
 

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4040

• Primary support is 4000
• Primary objective is 4207
• Below 3985 opens 3950
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

EURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0990

• Primary support  is 1.07
• Primary objective is 1.1128
• Below 1.0700 opens 1.0660
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

GBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2410

• Primary support  is 1.2250
• Primary objective 1.2659
• Below 1.22 opens 1.2010
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

USDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 133.00

• Primary resistance  is 135.15
• Primary objective is 129.15
• Above 136 opens 137.90
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .6685

• Primary resistance  is .6750
• Primary objective is .6565
• Above .6775 opens .6825
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

BTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 28400

• Primary support 26500
• Primary objective is 30500
• Below 26300 opens 25800
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

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