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CPI Rally Fizzles As Investors Position For US Bank Earnings 

Asian equities have once again traded with a mixed tone, the handover from the US was less than convincing, and US CPI came in below expectations but the initial rally fizzled out as a ‘buy the rumour sell the fact’ mentality set in. All US benchmarks ended the day in the red. The reversal was extended after FOMC minutes gave little colour on the future of US rates as rate projections into December remained unchanged, notably Fed speaker Daly speaking after the FOMC minutes release reiterated the ‘more work to do’ mantra. 

Overnight the Nikkei has continued to rotate around the 28K handle, briefly dipping below on reports of a North Korean missile launch. The Hang Seng has been weighed by reports from the FT that Softbank has sold its remaining stake in Alibaba. The mainland Shanghai Comp had a muted response to an upside surprise in Chinese exports, however, Chinese customs suggested that trade may face headwinds ahead.  

The Data docket for the European session will offer insight into Eurozone GDP development over Q1 with the release of February industrial production data, after the positive print in January investors will be keen to see if the positivity proves to be a nascent trend or an anomaly. UK Investors got a mixed bag this morning with the release of UK GDP data month over month, flat missing the expected 0.1%, however, revisions came in with improvements with the three-month print marginally positive at 0.1% for February as the UK economy once again fends off a technical recession.

In the US with no data of note on the docket for today aside from weekly jobless claims and PPI, investors will look towards the start of Q1 earnings season with many of the tier-one banking franchises set to announce earnings in the coming days. Tomorrow sees the major banking marquees of JPMorgan, Citi and Wells Fargo set to announce performance for the quarter. Given the Feds' focus on credit conditions, banking earnings will give timely insights into the credit landscape. Investors will also be keen to track the regional banks' earnings given the recent turbulence amongst their peers, especially given Bank of South Carolina’s recent announcement around margin erosion as the bank highlighted a significant increase in deposit costs given the surge in competition with larger banks, brokerages and the US Treasury.
 

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(In bold represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

• EUR/USD: 1.0900 (EU6.32B), 1.0800 (EU3.69B), 1.1000 (EU3.41B)
• USD/JPY: 135.00 ($2.18B), 133.00 ($1.16B), 132.00 ($1.09B)
• AUD/USD: 0.6600 (AUD1.16B), 0.6625 (AUD940M), 0.6630 (AUD910.3M)
• USD/CNY: 6.9000 ($852M), 6.8200 ($531.1M), 6.8900 ($522.5M)
• USD/CAD: 1.3525 ($1B), 1.3740 ($580.8M), 1.3350 ($400.5M)
• USD/MXN: 18.00 ($768M), 18.60 ($556.4M), 18.50 ($537.7M)
• EUR/GBP: 0.8810 (EU313.3M), 0.9100 (EU307.7M), 0.8850 (EU300.6M)
• GBP/USD: 1.2380 (GBP538.4M), 1.2365 (GBP457.3M), 1.1825 (GBP398M)
   

Overnight News of Note

• Fed Leans Toward Another Hike, Defying Staff’s Recession Outlook
• Asia Stocks Trade Mixed Thursday As Traders Assess Fed’s Path
• Alibaba Slumps On Report Of Softbank Plan To Sell Most Of Stake
• China's Exports And Imports Grow In Jan-March Period - China Customs
• Australian Employment Surges As Labour Market Weathers Rate Hikes
• BoJ Gov Ueda Highlights Risk Of Inflation Falling Below Target
• South Korea Import Prices Drop In March At Fastest Pace In 27 Months
• UK’s Hunt Hints Growing Economy Sets Stage For Polls Next Spring
• US Dollar Trades Mixed On Thursday As US Inflation Cools
• Yen Will Rally to 120 as US Recession Spurs 100bps Fed Cuts: ING
• Oil Trades Near Highest Close In Five Months As Market Tightens
• OPEC+ Cut Lifts Chances Of Oil Topping $85, IEA’s Birol Says
• US Energy Secretary Signals Plan To Rebuild Oil Reserve
• Apple Triples India iPhone Output To $7 Billion In China Shift

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
 

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4070

• Primary support is 4000
• Primary objective is 4207
• Below 3985 opens 3950
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

EURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0930

• Primary support  is 1.07
• Primary objective is 1.1128
• Below 1.0700 opens 1.0660
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

GBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.24

• Primary support  is 1.2250
• Primary objective 1.2659
• Below 1.22 opens 1.2010
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

USDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 133.00

• Primary resistance  is 135.15
• Primary objective is 129.15
• Above 136 opens 137.90
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .6696 

• Primary resistance is .6740
• Primary objective is .6950
• Below .6560 opens .6450
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

BTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 29000 

• Primary support 23000
• Primary objective is 30500
• Below 23000 opens 22400
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

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