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The rebound in sentiment from Wall Street on Friday has helped Asian stock markets trade mostly higher on Monday. However, traders are still cautious because of the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US election, and the impending monetary policy announcement from the US Federal Reserve. Along with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England (BoE), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Riksbank, and Norges Bank will all make rate decisions this week, giving investors global monetary policy catalysts. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates on Thursday regardless of the election result, with further cuts anticipated in December, though this may change depending on the president-elect. The Bank of England and Riksbank are also expected to cut rates, while other central banks are likely to hold steady. Oil prices have risen after OPEC+ delayed a planned production increase, indicating concerns about global demand. The standing committee of China's National People's Congress (NPC) will meet from November 4 to November 8, and it will be eagerly monitored for more information on a number of previously announced stimulus measures. Asia's trading was thinner on Monday since Japan was on vacation.

The euro and the yen nudged up against the dollar. A poll that showed Democratic candidate Kamala Harris with an unexpected 3-point lead in Iowa, primarily because of her appeal with female voters, may have contributed to the dollar's decline. Prior to the election, Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump were still essentially tied in opinion polls, and the outcome may not be known for days after the votes close. With the Democrats catching up, the likelihood of a Republican sweep has dropped considerably. The outcome of the vote may not be known immediately, and there could be legal challenges that prolong the process. European investors will have to stay up late on Tuesday night to see the first results since polls in Kentucky and Indiana close at 10pm GMT. Different news sites say that the final answer will be given anywhere from as soon as London gets to work on Wednesday to days or weeks from now. Given how close the polls were, the uncertainty about when the final result will come in reflects the larger question about the outcome itself.

Ahead of the US Election focus Important things that might affect markets on Monday ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone and ECB President Christine Lagarde attended the Eurogroup meeting. ECB members Claudia Buch, Christodoulos Patsalides, Frank Elderson, and Elizabeth McCaul's appearances U.S. durable goods and factory orders data for September; final Eurozone manufacturing PMIs for October.
 

Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

• China Stimulus Uncertainty To Linger Post Law Makers' Meeting
• China Urges France, EU To Arrive At Palatable EV Solution
• RBA Set To Hold Key Rate To Counter Sticky Inflation Risks
• German Coalition Squabbles Over FM’s New Proposals
• BoE Expected To Cut Rates Despite Looser Fiscal Policy
• UK’s Badenoch To Reveal New Conservative Shadow Cabinet
• UK Trade Union Threatens Legal Action Over Winter Fuel Cut
• Santander’s UK Unit Faces New Hit After Years Of Lag
• Nvidia To Join Dow Jones Industrial Average, Replacing Intel
• Investors From Stocks To Crypto Brace For US Election Volatility
• Dollar Slips Ahead Of US Election; Fed Rate Cut Looms
• Westpac Sees Credit Demand In 2025, Posts 3% Y/Y Profit Fall
• Opec+ Members Delay Planned Rise In Oil Production

          (Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)
 

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

• USD/JPY: 152.00 ($580.3m), 148.30 ($499.9m), 147.00 ($450m)
• EUR/USD: 1.0820 (EU1.36b), 1.0970 (EU1.04b), 1.1250 (EU899.6m)
• AUD/USD: 0.6600 (AUD1.47b), 0.6510 (AUD703.3m), 0.6400 (AUD550m)
• USD/CAD: 1.4000 ($635.8m), 1.3800 ($609.1m), 1.3875 ($316.1m)
• GBP/USD: 1.3000 (GBP800.4m), 1.2850 (GBP560m), 1.2650 (GBP360m)
• USD/CNY: 7.3000 ($491.1m), 7.2000 ($420.8m), 6.9500 ($400m)
• EUR/GBP: 0.8300 (EU425m), 0.8545 (EU424.8m), 0.8350 (EU370.1m)
   

CFTC Data As Of 1/11/24

• Net USD G10 long +$8.88bn to +$18.7bn in Oct 23-29 IMM period; $IDX +0.13%
• EUR +0.17%: speculative positions decreased by 21.8k contracts, now at -50.3k, lower ECB view weighs on EUR
• JPY +1.55%; speculative positions decreased by 37.6k contracts, now at +25k, on hawkish Fed, less dovish BoJ
• GBP +0.27%; speculative positions decreased by 8.2k contracts, now at +66.4k; less-dovish BoE lends support. Note large sterling dip post-budget not accounted for in this report
• CAD +0.62%; speculative positions decreased by 26.9k contracts, now at -168k; shorts eyes July ATH -196k
• AUD -1.78%; speculative positions decreased by 163 contracts, now at +27.5k; for now RBA least dovish c.bank
• Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 20,435 contracts to 1,045,389
• Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 12,576 contracts to 292,035
• Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 52,992 contracts to 901,183
   

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5775

• Daily VWAP bearish
• Weekly VWAP bearsih
• Below 5720 opens 5660
• Primary support 5660
• Primary objective 5950

(Click on image to enlarge)

EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.09

• Daily VWAP bullish
• Weekly VWAP bearish 
• Above 1.09 opens 1.0980
• Primary support 1.0750
• Primary objective 1.0750

(Click on image to enlarge)

GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.3050

• Daily VWAP bullish
• Weekly VWAP bearish
• Below 1.29 opens 1.27
• Primary support is 1.29
• Primary objective 1.31

(Click on image to enlarge)

USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 148

• Daily VWAP bullish
• Weekly VWAP bullish 
• Below 148 opens 144
• Primary support 148
• Primary objective is 156

(Click on image to enlarge)

XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2680

• Daily VWAP bullish
• Weekly VWAP bullish
• Below 2670 opens 2600
• Primary support 2550
• Primary objective is 2800

(Click on image to enlarge)

BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 69500

• Daily VWAP bullish
• Weekly VWAP bullish
• Below 69000 opens 64000
• Primary support is 58000
• Primary objective is 8000

(Click on image to enlarge)

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