Daily Market Outlook - Monday, June 26

Stock Exchange, Courses, Shares, Trading, Forex

Image Source: Pixabay
 

Asian equity markets showed limited movement following losses on Wall Street Friday, as weak global PMI data and a lack of fresh catalysts kept markets subdued. The weekend news cycle was dominated by the brief uprising of the Wagner Group in Russia. The Nikkei 225 in Japan experienced choppy trading as investors digested the latest Summary of Opinions from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The summary largely reiterated the central bank's dovish stance, emphasizing the need to maintain current monetary easing and the premature nature of any policy shifts. However, one member suggested that the BoJ should consider reviewing its yield curve control (YCC) framework in the near future while continuing with easy monetary policy.

The Hang Seng in Hong Kong and the Shanghai Composite had mixed performances, with the Hong Kong benchmark trading within a range and the mainland market underperforming. The return from the Dragon Boat Festival revealed that travel spending remained below pre-COVID levels, adding to concerns about weak domestic demand and slower consumption.

The start of the week has a scant data docket. In Europe, the German Ifo survey is expected to show a slight moderation in June. In the US, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for June is set to be released. Attention will also be focused on the ECB's Sintra forum, where President Lagarde is expected to deliver welcome remarks. ECB officials have been reassuring markets about their ability to contain inflation, and this message was likely to be reiterated during the conference. The gathering of central bank officials, including the heads of the ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, will be closely watched given the global challenges of inflation and borrowing costs. However, no new information is anticipated as many of these officials had recently made statements following policy decisions.
 

CFTC Data As Of 23-06-23

  • (USD net spec short grew in Jun 14-20 period; $IDX -0.76%
  • EUR$ +1.15% in period, specs -7,173 contracts into strength, now +144,649
  • $JPY +1.31% in period, JPY soft amid rate divergence, specs -3,680 contracts
  • GBP$ +1.21%, specs get long ahead of CPI/BoE, +39,873 contracts now +46,608
  • Specs guessed right higher CPI, +50bp BoE but GBP$ -150 pips from weeks high
  • AUD$ +0.3% in period, specs +12,129 contracts on hawkish RBA, now -33.5k
  • BTC +8.96%, specs 346 contracts into strength, halved long to +397 contractsSource: Reuters)
     

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.0815 (471M), 1.0825-35 (464M) , 1.0855-60 (641M)
  • 1.0950-55 (335M)
  • EUR/CHF: 0.9800 (323M). GBP/USD: 1.2730 (204M)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6675 (300), 0.6775 (295M)
     

Overnight News of Note

  • Fed’s Bowman Says Bank Supervision Preferable To Capital Rules
  • US Officials See Weakened Putin, Russia Turmoil Reveals 'Cracks'
  • Silence Cloaks Russian Kremlin After Armed Mutiny Against Putin
  • S&P Global Cuts China 2023 Growth Forecast To 5.2% From 5.5%
  • China Senior Economic Official: Must Act Fast To Bolster Recovery
  • BoJ Member Called For Early Tweak To YCC, Yen Worry Resurface
  • Japan Forex Official Warns 'Rapid And One-Sided' Weakening Yen
  • ECB Entering Final Stretch Of Interest Rate Hikes, De Guindos Says
  • ECB's Makhlouf Says Undecided About Rate Increases Beyond July
  • UK To Tame Inflation With Greedflation And Public Pay Crackdown
  • Swiss National Bank Governor Jordan Flags Further Rate Increases
  • OPEC Forecasts Global Oil Demand Rising To 110Mln BPD By 2045

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
 

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4340

  • Below 4330 opens 4300
  • Primary support is 4300
  • Primary objective is 4580
  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

EURUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearsih Below 1.0920

  • Below 1.0880 opens 1.0830
  • Primary support is 1.0666
  • Primary objective is 1.1050
  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

GBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.2750 

  • Below 1.27 opens 1.26
  • Primary support  is 1.2680
  • Primary objective 1.2880
  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 142.20 - Target Hit, New Pattern Emerging 

  • Below 141.90 opens 140.90
  • Primary support  is 139.50
  • Primary objective is 143.49
  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUDUSD Bias:Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below .6806

  • Below .6720  opens .6648
  • Primary support  is .648
  • Primary objective is .6917
  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

BTCUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 29500 

  • Below 28000 opens 26900
  • Primary resistance is 27400
  • Primary objective is 31600
  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)


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