Daily Market Outlook - Monday, June 17

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The U.S. has a busy schedule, as the dust settles on the June FOMC meeting, with many Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak. May retail sales and industrial production lead,followed by building permits, housing starts, the Philly FedBusiness Index, and flash S&P Global June PMIs. Fed speakers include Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Philadelphia President Patrick Harker, Dallas President Lorie Logan, St Louis President Alberto Musalem, and Chicago President Austan Goolsbee.

The Bank of England meets on Thursday and is not expected to move interest rates. LSEG's prices around a 90%chance of no change in the current 5.25% rate, but economists expect an August cut. The BoE is likely to provide a cautious outlook and remain data-driven. The UK data highlights are MayCPI, PPI and retail sales, and flash June PMIs.

China's monthly activity data for May on Monday are likely to reveal an uneven economic recovery. Industrial output is forecast to slow to 6.4% from 6.7% in April, retail sales to pick up to 3% from 2.3%, and urban investment is seen steady.Unemployment and house prices will also be watched. The People's Bank of China is likely to hold its one-year medium-term lending facility rate at 2.50% on Monday, continuing to prioritise currency stability despite growing calls for older stimulus measures to combat deflationary pressures and spur domestic demand.

China is also likely to leave its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.45% and 3.95% respectively onThursday.

The euro zone has a low-key week with final May HICP, flashJune consumer confidence and PMIs and German ZEW economic sentiment due.

Japan has machinery orders, trade, nationwide CPI and flashPMIs scheduled.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to leave its benchmark rate at 4.35%

Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

  • China Leaves Key Rate Unchanged On Currency Pressure, Liquidity
  • China Factory Output Cools, Retail Spending Beats Forecasts
  • China Home-Price Slump Accelerates Despite More Stimulus
  • RBA Seen Holding Key Rate At 12-Year High As Inflation Stays Hot
  • Fed’s Kashkari: Fed Well-Placed to Take Its Time Ahead of Rate Cut
  • ECB In No Rush To Discuss French Bond Rescue, Sources Say
  • Scholz Demands More Team Spirit As Budget Showdown Looms
  • Australian Dollar Extends Decline Following Mixed China’s Economic Data
  • Oil Steadies After Weekly Gain As Traders Weigh Mixed China Data

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.0665-75 (1.75BLN), 1.0680-85 (1.34BLN)
  • 1.0695-00 (583M), 1.0745-50 (1.32BLN
  • USD/JPY: 155.60 (400M), 156.50-75 (928M), 157.00 (517M)
  • 157.50 (771M), 158.00 (833M)
  • USD/CHF: 0.8970 (482M), 0.9000 (400M)
  • GBP/USD: 1.2675 (353M), EUR/GBP: 0.8445-50 (810M)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6595-00 (1.09BLN), 0.6615 (848M), 0.6675 (404M)
  • 0.6700 (319M). AUD/NZD: 1.0700 (275M)
  • USD/CAD: 1.3650 (728M), 1.3700 (520M), 1.3750-55 (597M)
  • 1.3765-70 (978M), 1.3780 (790M)

CFTC Data As Of 14/06/24

  • Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 20,612 contracts to 352,937 
  • Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 13,149 contracts to 967,970
  • Euro net long position is 43,644 contracts
  • Japanese yen net short position is 138,579 contracts
  • British pound net long position is 52,121 contracts
  • Swiss franc posts net short position of -42,863
  • Bitcoin net short position is -1,138 contracts

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5420

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish 5354
  • Below 5400 opens 5385
  • Primary support 5370
  • Primary objective is 5465

(Click on image to enlarge)

EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.0780

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 1.0788
  • Above 1.880 opens 1.0940
  • Primary resistance 1.0981
  • Primary objective is 1.0650

(Click on image to enlarge)

GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.2760

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 1.2715
  • Below 1.2740 opens 1.2690
  • Primary resistance  is 1.2890
  • Primary objective 1.2640

(Click on image to enlarge)

USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 157.20

  • Daily VWAP bullish
  • Weekly VWAP bullish 156.60
  • Below 156.80 opens 155.80
  • Primary support 152
  • Primary objective is 160

(Click on image to enlarge)

XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2320

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 2355
  • Above 2365 opens 2390
  • Primary support 2300
  • Primary objective is 2262

(Click on image to enlarge)

BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish below 70000

  • Daily VWAP bearish
  • Weekly VWAP bearish 68015
  • Below 66300 opens 64500
  • Primary support is 641000
  • Primary objective is 78200

(Click on image to enlarge)

More By This Author:

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Daily Market Outlook - Friday, June 14
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