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Asian equity markets are generally hugging the flatline in holiday-thinned trade with Japan offline. The handover from Wall Street was again less than convincing, banking concerns continue to linger, however, a decent set of earnings from Apple kept risk appetite afloat ahead of today’s Non Farm Payroll release. Onshore and offshore China indices managed to post marginal gains after some decent PMI services data came in overnight, with the Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp trading up circa 0.5% on the session.

In the UK much of the focus is on the holiday extended weekend celebrations of the King’s coronation, however, ahead of this UK investors will have one eye on PMI construction data which may add some color to this sensitive sector ahead of next week’s Bank of England meeting. After notching up a nine-month high in February, March data disappointed to the downside, but maintained a level above the pivotal 50 denoting expansion. Investors will be looking for further improvement today specifically any uptick in housing construction while the commercial landscape should remain relatively buoyant. In a particularly scant data docket, European investors will be eyeing retail sales data, after the retreat in February market watchers are expecting another pullback in March.

Stateside the main focus will be on Non Farm Payrolls, the significance of another round of headline layoffs in the US has yet to make a meaningful dent in the data. While relevant to the tech and financial sectors the general employment landscape appears to remain firm, the question is the quality of these jobs, which remains a concern for economists, markets are expecting a 180K print which would represent a decent pullback from the prior 236k print any headline upside surprise will bring the Fed firmly back into the picture. Another uptick in the unemployment rate would be welcome, investors will also be looking for any signs of a retreat in inflationary pressure on the wage data, markets have penciled an annualized 4.2% in line with the March print. The final data input of the week will be ISM manufacturing data, as investors will be looking for additional confirmation of a nascent trend of expansion after last month's positive print, however, the focus from a Fed perspective will be squarely on the jobs numbers, while investors will also have one eye on the regional banks heading into the weekend, will it be another Sunday night bailout story?
 

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(In bold represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

• EUR/USD: 1.0950 (1.6BLN), 1.0975 (551M), 1.1000 (1.7BLN)
• 1.1050-55 (1.6BLN), 1.1075-85 (2.8BLN), 1.1100 (3BLN)
• EUR/CHF: 0.9700 (250M)
• AUD/USD: 0.6700 (311M), 0.6800 (652M). AUD/NZD: 1.0750 (254M)
• USD/CAD: 1.3525 (585M), 1.3685-95 (3.4BLN)
• USD/JPY: 133.50 (1.4BLN), 133.85 (330M), 134.20-25 (390M), 135.00 (592M)
   

CFTC Data As Of 21/04/28

• USD net spec short near unchanged in Apr 19-25 period, Yen sellers most active
• EUR$ +0.02% in period specs +5,039 contracts now long 169,400
• EUR long largest since mid-Oct '20, $-equivalent more than 2x other pairs
• $JPY -0.26% in period, specs -11,875 contracts, short grows to 68,744
• GBP$ -0.11% in period, specs +4,537, now +5,839 as BoE-Fed diverge on rates
• CAD specs +2.4k short now 43,791, AUD specs +2,894 contracts now -39,462
• BTC -8.02% in period, specs +196 contracts now short 293 (Source RTRS)
   

Overnight News of Note

• US Stock Futures Moved Higher Following Apple’s Earnings
• Fed Swaps Point To A Rate Cut By July, Or Maybe Even June
• Fed’s Emergency Loans Fall Following First Republic Seizure
• US Officials Assessing Possible Banking Shares Manipulation
• FDIC Set To Hit Big Banks With Fee To Refill Insurance Fund
• US Seeks China Defence Minister Meet After Being Spurned
• Top Biden Advisor Plans To Visit Saudi Arabia This Weekend
• Chinese Services Activity Expands For Fourth Straight Month
• RBA Cut GDP, Inflation Forecasts As Rate Hikes Cool Activity
• BoC’s Macklem: BoC May Hike Further If Inflation Gets Stuck
• UK Labour, Liberal Dem Positive In Strong Local Election Win
• Apple iPhone Sales Rise, Bolsters Results In Shaky Economy
• Google Falling Behind In AI Arms Race, Senior Engineer Warn

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
 

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4050

• Below 4040 opens 4020
• Primary support is 4000
• Primary objective is 4207
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

EURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.10

• Below 1.0990 opens 1.0910
• Primary support  is 1.07
• Primary objective is 1.1128
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

GBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.25

• Below 1.2475 opens 1.24
• Primary support  is 1.2250
• Primary objective 1.2659
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

USDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 133.50

• Below 134.90 opens 134
• Primary support  is 133
• Primary objective is 138.80
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .6685 Target Hit - New Pattern

• Below .6620 opens .6560
• Primary support  is .6620
• Primary objective is .6750
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

BTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 29300

• Primary resistance 30000
• Primary objective is 26000
• Below 26000 opens 25800
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

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