Daily Market Outlook - Friday, March 24

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Yellen Flip Flop Leaves Markets Mixed Into The Weekend

Asian equities retreated as investors paired risk exposure into the weekend, in line with Wall Street. Investors have been buffeted by a round of mixed signals from Treasury Secretary Yellen who remained non-committal regarding deposit backstopping, hinting that such a move remained on the table, which left investors in a dilemma between the widely viewed dovish hike by the Fed and ongoing banking concerns. Considering another weekend of uncertainty it seems investors would rather wait for some clarity before deploying risk capital.

UK retail sales released this morning have surprised market watchers as the headline print displayed a 1.2% rise in sales volumes (including fuel) in February, the inter-month strength has been somewhat countered by an overall annual decline.

Preliminary UK March flash PMIs released this morning will give a timely update on economic trends indicating whether or not February’s advance was a nascent trend or an anomaly. PMI reports in both the Eurozone and the US will also be parsed by investors for further signs of continued improvements as both are expected to nudge above the pivotal 50 expansionary level. US durable goods orders for February are expected to see a 1.7% increase countering January’s losses.

FX Options For 10am New York Cut 

  • EUR/USD: 1.0800 (EU1.83B), 1.0600 (EU1.45B), 1.0700 (EU784.8M)    
  • USD/JPY: 133.00 ($865.1M), 130.00 ($830M), 133.75 ($748.6M)   
  • USD/CNY: 7.36 ($1.43B), 7.37 ($959.2M), 7.25 ($870M)  
  • AUD/USD: 0.6700 (AUD668.8M), 0.6500 (AUD399.9M), 0.7000 (AUD377.2M)      
  • USD/CAD: 1.3720 ($562.4M), 1.3600 ($454.9M), 1.3500 ($435M)
  • GBP/USD: 1.2100 (GBP320M)
  • EUR/GBP: 0.8900 (EU635.3M) 

Overnight News of Note

  • Dow Futures Drop As Investors Weigh Bank Troubles, Fed Decision
  • Australia PMI Composite Dropped To 48.1, Renewed Contraction
  • New Zealand Foreign Minister To Discuss Security With Chinese Counterpart
  • Key Measure Of Japan Inflation Reaches Highest Level In 41 Years
  • Japan's Factory Activity Contracts For Fifth Month - PMI
  • EU Regulators To Rethink Liquidity After Credit Suisse Unravels
  • Dollar Steady After Fed's Rate Pause Hints, Yen Rises
  • Stanchart CEO: Credit Suisse Bond Wipeout Had Profound Impact
  • Oil Edges Lower Amid Bank Concerns, Caution On Stockpile Refill
  • Rocky Road To Toshiba Deal Raises Doubts About A Future Comeback

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 3985

  • Primary resistance is 4078
  • Primary objective is 3804
  • Above 4040 opens 4078
  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

EURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0830

  • Primary support  is 1.0730
  • Primary objective is 1.1000
  • Below 1.0805 opens 1.0730
  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

GBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2280

  • Primary support  is 1.2265
  • Primary objective 1.2411
  • Below 1.2170 opens 1.2100
  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

USDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 132.50

  • Primary resistance  is 135.15
  • Primary objective is 130.00
  • Above 136 opens 137.90
  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .6696 

  • Primary resistance is .6740
  • Primary objective is .6950
  • Below .6560 opens .6450
  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

BTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 26500

  • Primary support 23000
  • Primary objective is 30000
  • Below 23000 opens 22400
  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

More By This Author:

Daily Market Outlook - Thursday, March 23
Daily Market Outlook - Wednesday, March 22
Daily Market Outlook - Tuesday, March 21

Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to ...

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