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Wall Street surged overnight as tech earnings continue to support risk sentiment. Asian equities duly followed suit as markets remain bid buoyed by the latest robust round of earnings and further positive momentum came from the inaugural Bank of Japan meeting with new chief Governor Ueda. The newly minted BoJ head decided to leave the banks' ultra-easy policy settings unchanged, including short-term interest rates at -0.1% and the target for 10-year government bond yields at 0%. The BoJ removed its guidance on interest rates although they confirmed that rates would stay at current or lower levels, as expected the bank also announced a review of its ultra-easy monetary policy and its economic impacts, however, the review isn’t expected to be complete until 2025, Ueda did state that monetary policy could change before the review is complete.

There is no tier-one data of note from the UK today ahead of the bank holiday extended weekend. European investors will focus on the first look at Q1 GDP. GDP data is expected to reaffirm the economy sidestepped a recession in Q1 this year with an uptick in industrial production and incremental improvement in trade balance as the energy supply shock has been neutralized.

US investors will parse the Q1 employment cost index, coupled with the Fed’s favored inflation metric the PCE deflator data due later today, markets are looking for a 1.1% print for the ECI which would represent a decline on an annual comparison basis. PCE inflation is also penciled to retreat in unison with CPI data as the energy input continues to be supportive of lower inflation figures. 

Markets are expecting a decent pullback from the prior 5% print to something closer to 4%, however, the core number, excluding food and energy is expected to remain stubbornly elevated at the prior 4.6%. Rounding out the week will be a first look at Chicago PMI data. Investors will be looking for any signs of improvement in sentiment given the uneven nature of manufacturing data across the US regions.
 

FX Options Expiries For 10 am New York Cut 

(In bold represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

• A massive 40-billion between 1.09-1.11 expire through month end
• EUR/USD: 1.1000 (3.1BLN), 1.1025-30 (594M), 1.1040-50 (1.3BLN)
• USD/CHF: 0.8820 (400M), 0.8950 (294M)
• GBP/USD: 1.2395-1.2400 (407M), 1.2500 (252M), 1.2600 (454M)
• EUR/GBP: 0.8850 (229M), 0.8875 (209M), 0.8900 (267M)
• AUD/USD: 0.6550 (924M), 0.6600 (1.25BLN), 0.6630-35 (677M), 0.6650 (405M)
• USD/CAD: 1.3600 (809M), 1.3625 (387M)
• USD/JPY: 134.00 (536M), 135.00 (422M)
   

CFTC Data As Of 21/04/23

• USD net spec long pared slightly in Apr 12-18 period, $IDX -0.38%
• USD offered amid speculation Fed nearing end of hike cycle
• EUR$ +0.55% in period, specs +1,023 contracts now long 164,361
• $JPY +0.3% in period specs +338 contracts, now short 56,869
• GBP$ -0.04% in period, specs +3,700 contracts, flips to +1,302
• $CAD -0.56% specs +10,346 contracts, now short 46,233
• BTC +0.77% in period specs +633 contracts, short cut to 489 (Source RTRS)
   

Overnight News of Note

• BoJ’s Ueda Scraps Guidance On Rates, Calls Review, Holds Policy
• CPI In Japan's Capital Accelerates, Keeps BoJ Under Pressure
• Australian Producer Price Index Suggests More From The RBA
• Fed Emergency Lending To Banks Ticks Up Modestly In Latest Week
• Yen Slumps After BoJ Decision, Dollar Headed For Monthly Loss
• Oil Set For Second Weekly Drop As Recession Fears, Rates Cloud Outlook
• Amazon Q1 Beats, But Raises Fears Of Continued Slowing Cloud Growth
• Intel Forecasts Second-Quarter Revenue Above Estimates
• T-Mobile Misses Est For Quarterly Rev, Wireless Sub Additions
• Amgen 1st Quarter Profit Falls As Costs Rise, Sales Up 2%

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
 

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4100

• Primary support is 4000
• Primary objective is 4207
• Below 3985 opens 3950
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

EURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0990

• Primary support  is 1.07
• Primary objective is 1.1128
• Below 1.0700 opens 1.0660
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

GBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2410

• Primary support  is 1.2250
• Primary objective 1.2659
• Below 1.22 opens 1.2010
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

USDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 135.00

• Primary resistance  is 137.30
• Primary objective is 129.15
• Above 137.30 opens 138
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .6685

• Primary resistance  is .6750
• Primary objective is .6565
• Above .6775 opens .6825
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

BTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 28400

• Primary support 26500
• Primary objective is 30500
• Below 26300 opens 25800
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

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