My previous BTC/USD signal on 15^th August produced a profitable long trade entry from the bullish bounce at the key support level of $57,974.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

• Risk 0.50% per trade.
• Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $56,880, $55,463, or $54,736.
• Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $58,762, $59,401, or $60,445.
• Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC analysis almost three weeks ago that Bitcoin was looking bearish as it sat heavily on the support level at $57,974. I thought this would act as the day’s pivotal point and it arguably did, giving a profitable long trade entry before the price turned bearish again towards the end of the day.

The technical picture is quite different now, having become much more bearish with the general sell off in risky assets which of course includes Bitcoin – don’t think of Bitcoin as any kind of safe haven.

The long-term and medium-term bearish trends are obvious, but right now we are seeing the first sign of a major higher low, which might base off a potential new support level at $56,880. If we do get a firm bullish bounce here, this could trap enough shorts to make a strong spike higher. However, the bearish trend is likely to reassert itself later even if this happens, although much will likely depend upon tomorrow’s non-farm payroll data in the USA. If the data is stronger than expected, there may be more risk appetite which should push the price higher. If the data is weaker than expected, we could see a strong fall here.

It is worth noting that there’s nothing special about Bitcoin in the market right now, it is not really in focus. The Japanese Yen is the asset that is attracting a lot of action.

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding Bitcoin. Concerning the US Dollar, there will be releases of the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls Forecast at 1:15pm London time, followed by Unemployment Claims at 1:30pm and ISM Services PMI at 3pm.

More By This Author: