Bitcoin Investors: A Diagnosis

From what I've gathered there are 3 types of Bitcoin investors. Their strategies and mantras vary and there are two things they have in common. The first is simply being bullish on Bitcoin.

Type 1 is the most common and in my opinion the most apt. This investor first heard about Bitcoin sometime in the last 5 years. As advised by most conservative analysts, or perhaps by intuition, Type 1 owns anywhere from 1-5 Bitcoins (significantly more only if net worth exceeds ~$5M) and sees the cryptocurrency as a diversification tool and/or portfolio insurance.

Type 2 as a group has outperformed every hedge fund on every continent in recent years. Influenced by hallucinogenic tendencies and/or substances, this investor has a very large percent of liquid net worth (15%+) invested in Bitcoin, Ethereum and the like. Type 2s may have bought at any time in the cryptocurrency's existence. They have not, however, sold any Bitcoins other than perhaps an emergency or to pay living expenses. Type 2 is a believer:) Whether by sales tactics of social media's Bitcoin Mafia, visions of a Jetsons-esque future for humanity or some other successful departure from reality, this investor "thinks" an entirely digitized world needs an entirely digitized currency. The dollar was digitized first, and believing in the value of Blockchain technology completely disregards privacy and ownership in ways that those in power (and many of the rest of us) staunchly oppose.

Ah, Type 3. Did you hold out on tech stocks til 1999 then pile in at the top because you "couldn't take it anymore!"? Perhaps you sided with Warren Buffett on gold until the madness in 2011 took hold of your investing soul. Type 3 is a follower, a soldier and entirely lacks decision-making ability. Price action and powerful propaganda from the games biggest power players; both mainstream and alternative, have in recent months created the Type 3 Bitcoin investor. Specifically, Goldman Sachs recently called for a drop to $1800 (complete) before a rally to $4000 (imaginary). Just days ago John Mcafee tweeted that he would eat his genitalia if Bitcoin does not reach $500,000 within 3 years. Tweets may or may not be legally binding. Type 3 investors are generally looking to take profits along the way unlike Type 2 counterparts, however, they are "by definition" piling at the very end or after a bull market. 

Currently, near $2600, Bitcoin is completing a retracement (yes new highs are possible, extreme ones are not) before it crashes to approximately $0. There is simply not enough buying power, demand or koolaid available to sustain a rally to 6 figure fantasyland. 

As is the case with all bubbles, traders make a killing off investors; who in the case of Bitcoin will be holding quite the literal proverbial "bag" when all is said and done. The second thing all Bitcoin investors have in common is they don't understand what they're investing in.

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Cyrus Dariani 7 years ago Member's comment

Bitcoin is one of those very interesting new trends in the market. I have personally watched bitcoin go from $600 last summer to almost $2600 now. That is almost 4.5 times growth in the past 12 months. How stable it will be is something we will never know until the future. However I have faith bitcoin will stay strong!