Bitcoin Bubble Warning Follow-Up

We wrote to you on the December 12th warning to stay away from Bitcoin.

We posted that comment on our blog and received some outraged comments from Bitcoin “fanboys”. That is the price of skepticism expressed about any bubble.

We said we can’t be involved in Bitcoin as fiduciaries, and have been recommending to clients that they not become involved on their own.

As Bitcoin went from less than $500 to more than $18,700, our concern was increased, while some people felt we should not have missed the boat.

We are in good company with those who warn about involving in Bitcoin, including the CEO of JP Morgan; the CEO of the largest hedge fund in the world; the CEO of the largest pure short-only hedge fund, the founder and former CEO of Vanguard; the former CIO of Harvard Endowment, the CEO of the largest money manager in the world, a Nobel Laureate in Economics, and Warren Buffett.

Bitcoin may bounce back to new highs, but it is simply not investible. It may be better than roulette as a fun thing to play, but is not an investible asset.

Maybe it was just dumb luck, but we did call at least an intermediate top on December 12th. We continue to believe it is not a good idea to own Bitcoin, and advise clients not to see the current decline as a buying opportunity.

Prices that go up vertically (an unsustainable pace) almost always turnaround and go down vertically until the speculative element is washed out.That appears to be happening now with Bitcoin. Futures may amplify that process, because now there is a way to be short, whereas before one could only be long.

Here is the chart of Bitcoin price on December 12.

(click images to enlarge)

Here is the chart of Bitcoin today, December 22.

 

 

Disclosure: None

"QVM Invest”, “QVM Research” are service marks of QVM Group LLC. QVM Group LLC is a registered investment advisor.

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Harry Goldstein 2 years ago Member's comment

Was #bitcoin the first ever #cryptocurrency? How many #cryptocurrencies are there now? And what is the difference (if any) between digital currency and cryptocurrency?

Michele Grant 2 years ago Member's comment

I've often cautioned my friends against investing in #bitcoin. Seems like everyone has been so caught up in its dramatic climb that they ignore all the warning signs of potential danger. Glad to see some level heads are prevailing here.