Bearish view

• Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6500.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6595.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

• Set a buy-stop at 0.6555 and a take-profit at 0.6625.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6485.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The AUD/USD exchange rate continued consolidating on Wednesday morning as US bond yields pulled back after a set of weak economic reports. The pair was hovering at 0.6550, a few points below this month’s high of 0.6595.
 

US bond yields retreat

The AUD/USD pair moved sideways as US bond yields dropped after the relatively weak US consumer confidence and durable goods order numbers. The yield of the 10-year government bonds pulled back to 4.28% while 30-year fell to 4.41%. Similarly, the 5-year moved to 4.29%, its lowest level in a week.

These yields retreated after a report by the Conference Board revealed that consumer confidence fell from 110.9 in January to 106.7 in February. This decline was worse than the median estimate of 114.8 and was its lowest point in months.

A separate report revealed that the Richmond manufacturing shipments index dropped to minus 15. Meanwhile, data by the Commerce Department showed that the country’s core durable goods orders fell by 0.3% MoM in January, worse than the median estimate of 0.2%. The headline orders fell by 6.1% on a month-on-month basis.

These numbers mean that the American economy is softening even as inflation remains above the 2% target. Recent numbers also showed that the country’s retail sales dropped sharply in January.

The next important data to watch will be the upcoming second estimate of the US GDP numbers. Economists, based on the initial report, expect the data to show that the economy expanded by 3.3% in Q4 after growing by 4.9% in the previous quarter.

The US GDP numbers are usually important because they measure the performance of the economy. However, the impact of the second estimate on the US dollar is usually moderate.
 

AUD/USD technical analysis

The AUD/USD pair remained in a tight range this week as US bond yields retreated. It was trading at the key resistance point at 0.6550, a few points below this month’s high of 0.6595. It is also consolidating at the 50-period and 25-period moving averages.

The MACD and the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) have moved to their zero line while volume has been a bit thin. Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range in the coming days, with the next support and resistance points to watch being at 0.6500 and 0.6595.

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