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• AUD/USD bounces back as the US Dollar falls after a short-lived pullback post US weekly jobless claims data.
• The upside in the US Dollar remains capped by optimism over Fed interest rate cuts in September.
• Australian Composite PMI returns to expansion in August.

The AUD/USD pair discovers buying interest from the intraday low of 0.6725 in Thursday’s New York session. The Aussie asset is expected to resume its upside journey as the US Dollar (USD) retreats after the release of the United States (US) Initial Jobless Claims report for the week ending August 16.

The report showed that the number of individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time came in higher at 232K from the estimates of 230K and the prior release of 228K, upwardly revised from 227K, accelerating worries of deteriorating labor market conditions. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, falls after a short-lived pullback move to near 101.40.

The near-term appeal of the US Dollar is already vulnerable as the Federal Reserve (Fed) seems to be on track to start reducing interest rates in September. The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes showed that the ‘vast majority’ of officials see interest rate cuts appropriate in September, given that price pressures continue to ease as expected.

Meanwhile, investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium on Friday. Investors will look for cues about the likely size of interest rate cuts in September and how much they will be reduced by the year-end.

In the Asia-Pacific region, the Australian Dollar (AUD) has outperformed the US Dollar in the last three weeks amid firm speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will not cut interest rates this year. The RBA is expected to leave its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its current level for an extended period as officials remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation.

On the economic data front, the flash Australian Judo Bank PMI report showed that the overall business activity expanded to 51.4 after contracting to 49.9 in July, boosted by a sharp increase in the service sector. While activities in the manufacturing sector contracted at a slower pace.

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