• The AUD/USD price analysis shows a rebound in Australia’s economy.
• Australia’s economy grew by 0.6% in Q2, compared to the forecast of 0.5%.
• Economists believe US job growth will remain weak at 75,000.

The AUD/USD price analysis shows a rebound in Australia’s economy that has eased expectations for RBA rate cuts. Meanwhile, the focus remains on the looming US nonfarm payrolls report, which will shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. 

Data on Wednesday revealed that Australia’s economy grew by 0.6% in Q2, compared to the forecast of 0.5%. The data pushed market participants to lower the chances of a November RBA cut from 100% to 92%.

 “Today’s data are an encouraging confirmation that heightened global uncertainty did not take a heavy toll on the economy in Q2,” said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia.

“Still, Q2 may prove to be a high watermark for growth in 2025. The June quarter benefitted from a rebound from a soft Q1, business and consumer confidence are still a little shaky, and the labour market appears to be cooling.”

Meanwhile, traders remain cautious ahead of the NFP report on Friday. Economists believe job growth will remain weak at 75,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate could jump from 4.2% to 4.3%. A bigger-than-expected slowdown will likely revive bets for a massive rate cut in September.
 

AUD/USD key events today

• US JOLTS job openings
   

AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bears attempt a reversal
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart
 

On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has retested the 30-SMA after a recent bearish break. With the price now below the SMA and the RSI slightly under 50, the bias has turned bearish. The shift in sentiment comes after the price met the 0.6550 key resistance level. 

However, since bulls took over near the 0.6425 support level, the price has made higher highs and lows. Therefore, bears would have to break this pattern to confirm a reversal. This means breaking below the previous low and respecting the 30-SMA as a resistance. Such a move would allow AUD/USD to retest the 0.6425 support level. 

If bears fail to do this, the price could break back above the SMA to retest the 0.6550 resistance. A break above would strengthen the bullish bias and allow the price to revisit the 0.6620 resistance.

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