AUD/USD Forex Signal: Risk-On Flow

My previous signal last Thursday was not triggered, as there was no bearish price action when the resistance level at $0.6539 was first reached.

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

  • Risk 0.75%
  • Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.

AUD/USD Signal Today - 16/04: Risk-On Flow (Chart)

Short Trade Ideas

  • Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6456, $0.6345, or $0.6299.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6391, $0.6345, or $0.6299.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
 

AUD/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous forecast on Thursday last week that the AUD/USD currency pair was likely to remain consolidative between $0.6500 and $0.6561. I was looking for a potential short trade from a reversal off the latter level.

This was a good call, as the price did remain between these two levels over the day, although the resistance level at $0.6561 was not quite reached.

The technical picture now is considerably more bearish, with the price falling quite hard to trade at a new 5-month low price, so we do see a serious trend backed by market sentiment, which is definitely risk-off right now. In fact, this currency pair is in the market’s focus, because nothing has fallen as hard as the Australian Dollar, which is always a key risk barometer.

Markets are worried about a war between Israel and Iran, the pace of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts, and poor Chinese economic data released a few hours ago. These factors are strengthening the US Dollar and weakening the Aussie.

Technically, we continue to see short-term bearish momentum. The price looks as if it will continue to $0.6391 before reaching any resistance levels so the opportunity to trade short and catch the current move may be over already. It might be best to wait for a new bullish retracement and then try to enter short from $0.6456 or even $0.6440.

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the AUD. Concerning the USD, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking at a forum at 6:15pm.


More By This Author:

Weekly Forex Forecast - Sunday, April 14
AUD/USD Forex Signal: Consolidation Pattern Continues
Forex Today: Gold Beats $2,300

Risk Disclaimer: DailyForex will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the information contained within this website including market news, analysis, trading signals ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.