Bullish view

• Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6685.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6615.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6615.
• Add a stop-loss 0.6685.
   

(Click on image to enlarge)

The AUD/USD pair continued pulled back for the third consecutive day as traders waited for the upcoming US macro data. It dropped to a low of 0.6635, down from this month's high of 0.6685.
 

US Jobs and Inflation Data

The AUD/USD pair pulled back from this month's high of 0.6685 to the current 0.6640 as traders waited for the upcoming US inflation and jobs data.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the numbers to show that the economy created 55,000 in October after adding 110,000 in the previous month.

The expectation is that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%, while the average hourly earnings rose by 3.8% during the month.

The US will publish the latest retail sales and manufacturing PMI numbers. Analysts expect the data to show that retail sales rose by 2.7% in October after falling by 4.7% in for previous month.

Meanwhile, analysts expect the S&P Global PMI report to show that the manufacturing PMI rose from 52.2 in October to 53 in November, a sign that the sector continued growing.

These numbers came a few days after the Federal Reserve delivered its interest rate decision. As was widely expected, the bank decided to cut interest rates by 0.25% in the last meeting to between 3.50% and 3.75%.

Officials also hinted that the bank would cut interest rates by 0.25% in the coming year to between 3.25% and 3.5%.

In a statement on Monday, Susan Collins, the head of the Boston Federal Reserve, noted that she was increasingly concerned about inflation, which has remained above 2% in almost five years.

In his statement, Stephen Miran, another Fed official, noted that there was more room to cut interest rates in the coming meetings because of the ongoing softness in the labor market.
 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The daily timeframe chart shows that the AUD/USD exchange rate pulled back from this month's high of 0.6685 to the current 0.6650.

It has remained above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) following the recent surge that pushed it from a low of 0.6420 in November to a high of 0.6685.

The pair is attempting to retest the support at 0.6617, its highest point on October 1 and October 29. This means that it is about to form a break-and-retest pattern, which is a common continuation sign.

Therefore, the pair will likely resume the uptrend, and potentially to this month's high of 0.6685. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to the ultimate resistance level at 0.6713.

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