Today’s AUD/USD Signals

• Risk 0.75%
• Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6250, $0.6255, or $0.6275.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6172 or $0.6126.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
 

AUD/USD Analysis

In today’s AUD/USD forecast I predict that the AUD/USD currency pair is most likely to move lower, due to the following factors:

1. We see price action printing three resistance levels bunched just above the price action of the past few hours. When we see close bunches of several horizontal levels, these are likely to exert strong pressure, so I will be very surprised if the price will get established above $0.6275 today.
2. Note that the resistance levels are confluent with a significant quarter number at $0.6250.
3. The US Dollar is regaining some momentum and strength following President Trump’s threats of new tariffs. Such new tariffs might impact upon Australia, which under its new left-leaning government is unlikely to be especially friendly towards the Trump administration. Australia’s relative closeness to China and political hostility towards the Trump agenda and some of Trump’s allies might also work against the Aussie.
4. The Aussie is simply looking weaker due to the deteriorating state of the Australian economy.

A short trade from another rejection of the area between $0.6250 and $0.6275 would be the best opportunity which might set up today. There are no support levels for a long way down, but there have been many inflection points in this area which produced bullish moves when last touched, so it is not clear to me there is an obvious profit target.

There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of the Federal Funds Rate and the FOMC Statement at 7pm London time.

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