Potential signal:

I am a seller right now in this pair, with a stop loss at 0.67 and a target of 0.6433.

• Australian dollar action remains constrained by persistent resistance near 0.6550, with recent gains failing to hold.
• Support from major moving averages offers limited help as broader risk appetite, U.S. inflation, and Federal Reserve policy continue to drive choppy, short-term trading conditions.

The Australian dollar has rallied a bit in the early hours on Monday, but it looks like the market is struggling with the same 0.6550 level again, an area that's been very tough to break above, at least cleanly, for some time. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to the overall risk appetite and trading of goods back and forth between the United States and China, but globally as well.
 

We are sitting just above the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA. And as a result, it's very likely that there's a little bit of support here, but this is a pair that has not been able to hang on to gains for very long. And as a result, I think you still look at these rallies as potential selling opportunities, as the U.S. dollar, despite the fact that it's been soft for a couple of days, overall has held up quite well.
 

Short-Term Trader’s Market

This is a short-term trader's market. This is not one that longer-term traders will be looking at. And as a result, the market continues to be choppy and volatile, but I still think it's got an overhang. If we were to break above the 0.66 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the 0.67 level, although I don't like that trade.

If we do in fact see that happen, I'll probably short the dollar against stronger currencies, maybe the Euro, possibly the British pound. But as things stand right now, I think the market has gotten far ahead of itself when it comes to the idea that the Federal Reserve may not be able to keep rates this high because inflation in the United States is still a thing. We'll just have to wait and see how this plays out. And even if the Fed does cut, then you have the risk appetite part of the equation coming into the picture, meaning that if we get nervous, we buy dollars. That's just the long-running correlation.

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