My previous signal on 2nd April was not triggered.

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

• Risk 0.75%
• Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6539, $0.6561, or $0.6590.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
   

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6498, $0.6480, or $0.6456.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
 

AUD/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous forecast on Tuesday last week that the AUD/USD currency pair was likely to see a supportive rebound from the $0.6480, then entering a long trade. I thought this level would be a pivotal point one way or another and could also be used to trigger a short trade if we had gotten a bearish breakdown below it.

This was an excellent and profitable call as the low of the day before the bullish rebound was $0.6480.

We saw this currency pair gain over recent days as risky assets continued to grow at the expense of the US Dollar.

However, after reaching the natural top of the recent consolidation range by the time of yesterday’s US CPI data release, the price fell strongly on the unexpectedly high US CPI data, which had the effect of depressing risk appetite and boosting the US Dollar.

This bearish trigger sent the price lower to the $0.6500 area, where it seems to be recovering.

I think the best opportunity of the day here has already passed, with a bullish bounce from the support confluent with the major round number at $0.6500 already having taken place.

However, the resistance level at $0.6561 stands out as looking likely to be strong, so a short trade from a bearish rejection of that level, if it sets up, could be an appropriate entry signal for a good short trade.

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the AUD. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of PPI and Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time, followed by the 30-year Bond Auction at 6:01pm.

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