My previous AUD/USD signal on 11th September produced an excellent and very profitable long trade from the bullish rejection of the support level at $0.6595.
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

• Risk 0.25%
• Trades must be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6652, $0.6659, or $0.6696.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6614, $0.6595, or $0.6589.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
 

AUD/USD Analysis

In my previous AUD/USD forecast last Thursday, I wrote that there was quite likely to be a long trade set up which technically looked very attractive at a confluent point between the lower trend line of the ascending price channel shown within the chart below, and the horizontal resistance level at $0.6595.

This was an excellent call, as the strong hourly engulfing candlestick which formed engulfing that level was powerful, and gave a great long trade.

Here we are one week later, and the Aussie has been declining by most of this week, even though stock markets have been rising to new record highs in the USA. We are starting to see a bit of a disconnect between the Aussie and risk sentiment which is interesting.

The Aussie jumped higher at the London open this morning, but the price chart below looks messy and unclear. It is hard to see any good opportunities setting up here today.

Potentially a short trade at $0.6652 might be the best set up, as if I had to pick one level likely to be pivotal today, I would choose this one. However, I doubt even a winning short from here will be able to run very far, so I would be conservative and watchful in taking profit.
 

There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time.

More By This Author:

Forex Today: Asian Stocks Follow US Higher As Fed Awaits
AUD/USD Forex Signal: Ascending Channel Suggests $0.6595 Pivotal
Forex Today: Gold, S&P 500 Index Make New Record Highs Ahead Of US CPI