My previous signal on 10^th December produced both a profitable short trade from the bearish rejection of the resistance level at $0.6400 and a profitable long trade from the bullish bounce at $0.6345.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

• Risk 0.75%
• Trades must be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6442 or $0.6467 or $0.6509.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

• Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6401, $0.6345, or $6299.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
 

AUD/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous AUD/USD forecast two days ago that the AUD/USD currency pair was looking likely to break down below $0.6375.

I thought that a daily (New York) close below $0.6375 would be a significantly bearish technical sign and could be a great signal to enter a new short trade.

I was accurate with my levels, as both support and resistance levels were very useful for reversals that day. However, yesterday’s close below $0.6375 has produced a strong upwards price movement after the price made a strong bullish reversal at the lower support level at $0.6345. This is mostly due to US inflation data coming in as expected and clearing the way for a near-certain rate cut in the US next week, which has weakened the greenback.

Despite the bullish move here over recent hours, the price clearly remains within a descending price channel, evidenced by the linear regression analysis study I have placed in the chart image below.

The nearest resistance at $0.6442 is confluent with the upper edge of this channel, so a bearish reversal at that level could still be a great short trade – this point looks very pivotal. A bullish break above $0.6442 would be a significantly bullish development for the short to medium term.

There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of PPI data at 1:30pm London time.

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