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Asian equities opened on the back foot given a mixed handover from Wall Street as investors squared positions ahead of the Friday close and the US Presidents Day holiday today (with the NYSE closed today). Overnight geopolitical concerns were once again at the fore, with North Korea test-firing an ICBM and multiple rocket launcher drills, this was coupled with lingering China-US tensions as China warned the US on escalating tensions regarding ‘ballon-gate’ the US countered with its own warnings regarding China providing pro-Russian support in the Ukrainian war. The Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng were once again regional outperformers supported by continuing liquidity provisioning by the PB0C.

Today’s data docket is very scant. Eurozone consumer confidence is expected to post its fourth monthly rise in a row, however, the increase is from record low levels. This is the first of several Eurozone surveys for February due this week all of which are expected to show that economic conditions in the region are showing nascent signs of improvement. UK January public finances data, due early Tuesday, will reveal self-assessment income tax returns for the year. Any indication from this that annual borrowing levels will come in below forecasts may lead to more calls for new policy measures in the March Budget. Down under in Australia, the central bank will release minutes of its February policy meeting early Tuesday, after raising rates by 25bps at that meeting and pointing to the likelihood of further hikes, investors will parse the minutes for signs of further intentions to continue the restrictive monetary policy in the first half of this year.

Last week saw an extension of the rebound in market interest rate pricing in the US, this move commenced after the very robust employment report for January, when investors began to see markets actively reprice the terminal rate higher, with Fed officials' rhetoric also confirming a sense that higher for longer remains the name of the game, last week's data pointed to a slower decline in inflation and better than expected manufacturing activity reinforced the belief of elevated rates persisting, this week the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, core personal consumer expenditure deflator, will be released and may point to another rise of 0.4% month over a month leaving the Fed adrift by 0.17% month over month from achieving levels that would return the US to it’s 2% inflation target.

FX Options Expiration New York Cut

• GBPUSD 1.1000(400m)
   

Overnight News of Note

• Asia Shares Hesitant Ahead Of Updates On Fed, BoJ Policies
• Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauges Seen Running Hot This Week
• US Plans New Russia Export Controls, Key Industries Sanctions
• US-China Meeting Only Worsens Tensions Over Balloon, Russia
• WH To Hold Secret Talks With Taiwan Officials In Washington
• Chinese Banks Hold Rates Steady, Analysts Bet Easing To Come
• BoJ Viewers Flag Outside Risk Of March Surprise To Help Ueda
• Iran Nuclear Inspectors Find Uranium Enriched To 84% Purity
• North Korea Fires Barrage Of Ballistic Missiles As It Warns US
• ECB’s Makhlouf Defends Runaway Economic Growth As ‘Real’
• UK PM Sunak Forced To ‘Pause’ Protocol Deal Amid Backlash
• Meta To Launch Subscription Service For Facebook, Instagram
• Deutsche Bank Criticised By Regulators Over Mis-Selling Probe

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
 

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4100

• Primary support is 4005
• Primary objective is 4384
• Below 4000 opens 3965
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

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EURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0710

• Primary resistance is 1.0950
• Primary objective is 1.0430
• Above 1.0820 opens 1.09
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

GBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21

• Primary resistance  is 1.2265
• Primary objective 1.1785
• Above 1.2265 opens 1.2337
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

USDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 134

• Primary support  is 131.85
• Primary objective is 134.70
• Below 130.80 opens 130.11
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

AUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050

• Primary resistance is .7050
• Primary objective is .6750
• Above .7150 opens .7250
• 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 DayVWAP bearish

(Click on image to enlarge)

BTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 25200

• Primary support 23500
• Primary objective is 26700
• Below 20300 opens 19500
• 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

(Click on image to enlarge)

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