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Bitcoin may be entering a major turning point.

On the charts, the recent 5-wave Elliott Wave structure appears to be complete. If that pattern plays out, the next phase is usually corrective, and a potentially deep ABC correction could ensue. That alone raises the possibility of a retracement toward the $70K range or possibly lower.

But chart patterns are only half the story.
The fundamentals today are far more complicated than in any previous Bitcoin cycle.

The Real Cost to Mine a Bitcoin Today

Mining gets harder every halving, but this cycle is different. I asked Grok what the estimated cost to mine one Bitcoin is today; the answer was clear:

“The average cost to mine one Bitcoin (BTC) as of November 2025 is approximately $70,000 USD.”

This number matters.

If Bitcoin enters a bear market and falls below its production cost, miners begin to capitulate. Hash power can drop, weaker miners go offline, and the network becomes more fragile—not enough to shut it down, but enough to raise real questions about sustainability.

For years, Bitcoin bulls argued that “miners will always adapt.” But the energy landscape is shifting in ways the mining industry can’t simply outbid anymore.

Many of the BTC miners have come down in price from last month's highs. Companies such as Hut 8 (Nasdaq: HUT), Mara Holding (Nasdaq: MARA), CleanSpark Inc (Nasdaq: CLSK), Galaxy Digital Inc (Nasdaq: GLXY) and Riot Platforms (Nasdaq: RIOT) have already seen 50%-100% drop in their share price from last month. We may see a relief bounce and rally in these stocks and a trade opportunity, but I am not sure I would want to be a long-term holder unless we see BTC take off and break out to new highs, which I am not counting on.

AI Is About to Become Bitcoin’s Biggest Competitor

A decade ago, the main conversation was about whether Bitcoin used “too much energy.”
Today, the conversation is different:

AI data centers are consuming energy at levels that dwarf what Bitcoin needs—and the demand is exploding.

Governments and utilities will have to prioritize power allocation. When data centers that support AI, cloud services, and national security need energy, they get it. Bitcoin mining, which produces no essential economic output, sits at the bottom of that priority list.

This creates two problems for Bitcoin:

1. Rising energy costs. Miners will have to compete with hyperscale AI facilities, which can pay far more per kilowatt.

2. Limited expansion. New mining facilities will face political pushback as grids get stressed.

Bitcoin mining has always been an energy-arbitrage game, and now it seems that arbitrage is drying up.

If BTC Drops Toward $70K, the Economic Model Starts to Break

If the Elliott Wave pattern is signaling the start of a bear market, and Bitcoin does drop toward the current mining cost level, we reach an uncomfortable scenario:

• Below $70,000 = meaningful miner stress
• Below $60,000 = shutdowns, bankruptcies, consolidation
• Below $50,000 = a network security and sustainability debate begins

Nobody wants to talk about this, but when a network’s security model gets challenged financially... stability becomes a real concern. The Hash rate could drop enough that it no longer scales with Bitcoin’s trillion-dollar valuation.

The idea that Bitcoin is “digital gold” rests on constant, predictable mining. If the economics break, the narrative breaks.

The Rise of Stablecoins and CBDCs Changes the Payment Landscape

Whether people like it or not, Stablecoins and CBDCs look set to dominate global payment rails over the next decade:

• They scale instantly
• They comply with regulations
• They use negligible energy compared to proof-of-work
• They integrate easily with banks and fintech

In a world of tokenized payments, Bitcoin doesn’t compete on speed, cost, or efficiency. It competes only as a speculative asset, and speculative assets are vulnerable during periods of high interest rates and global recession.

Bitcoin may remain a store of value for some investors, but the idea of it becoming the backbone of the global digital financial system is fading.

I’m No Longer Bullish on Bitcoin

I’ve been bullish on Bitcoin for years, but right now the chart structure, the fundamentals, and the energy economics don’t match the old bull-cycle playbook.

• A completed Elliott Wave structure
• A potentially deep corrective phase
• A mining industry squeezed between costs and AI competition
• A global shift toward government-regulated digital rails

Bitcoin may still have upside over time, and we could see a bounce up from here for the B wave up, but the risks ahead are far greater than most investors acknowledge. If the bear market does continue and BTC retests the $70K level, we will find out very quickly how sustainable the mining industry truly is. If BTC goes below $70k, then the miners will lose money, and we could see more forced liquidations.  

The only Bullish scenario I see evolving is if sovereign nations buy BTC to hold as part of their Treasuries for strategic reserves, or we get significant demand from ETFs.  ETFs were the biggest drivers for BTC demand last year, I can't see that being the case going forward... so the Sovereigns have to pick up the ball from here.  Retail demand won't move the needle, so I don't expect much from them.

Are you still Bullish on BTC and will buy this Dip, or do you think the Bears have taken over, and the case for BTC ownership is getting weak?

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