A 2.5 percent decline in energy smoothed the CPI. But for the 27th straight month, the cost of rent rose at least 0.4 percent.

CPI month-over-month data from the BLS, chart by Mish

Groundhog Day for Rent

I repeat my core key theme for two years now. People keep telling me rents are falling, I keep saying they aren’t.

Rent of primary residence, the cost that best equates to the rent people pay, jumped 0.5 percent. Rent of primary residence has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 27 consecutive months!

All these “rents are falling” projections have been based on the price of new leases, but existing leases, vastly more important, keep rising.

With rents out of the way, Let’s tune into the BLS Report for the details. 

CPI Month-Over-Month Details

• The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in September
• The index for shelter continued to rise in October, offsetting a decline in the gasoline index and resulting in the seasonally adjusted index being unchanged over the month.
• The energy index fell 2.5 percent over the month as a 5.0-percent decline in the gasoline index more than offset increases in other energy component indexes.
• The food index increased 0.3 percent in October, after rising 0.2 percent in September. The index for food at home increased 0.3 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent.
• The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in October, after rising 0.3 percent in September. Indexes which increased in October include rent, owners’ equivalent rent, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, recreation, and personal care.
• The indexes for lodging away from home, used cars and trucks, communication, and airline fares were among those that decreased over the month.

CPI Year-Over-Year

CPI Year-Over-Year Details

• Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before seasonal adjustment. The all items index rose 3.2 percent for the 12 months ending October, a smaller increase than the 3.7- percent increase for the 12 months ending September.
• The all items less food and energy index rose 4.0 percent over the last 12 months, its smallest 12-month change since the period ending in September 2021.
• The energy index decreased 4.5 percent for the 12 months ending October, and the food index increased 3.3 percent over the last year.

CPI Thoughts and a Sour Mood

The market is cheering this data loudly, but other than the huge drop in energy, this was not a benign report.

People can cut back on some things but rent and food are not in that list.

Why Are Americans in Such a Rotten Mood? Biden Blames the Media

For discussion, please see Why Are Americans in Such a Rotten Mood? Biden Blames the Media

For discussion of the latest polls, please see Five Alarm Bell – Biden Trails Trump in Five of Six Battleground States

On November 8, I reported Credit Card Delinquencies Surge as Consumer Debt Tops $17 Trillion

I will do a detailed report of food shortly. But rent, food, and unpopular energy mandates from the Biden administration have people in a sour mood.

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