University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Please consider the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary survey results for November 2025.

Consumer sentiment fell back about 6% this November, led by a 17% drop in current personal finances and a 11% decline in year-ahead expected business conditions. With the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy. This month’s decline in sentiment was widespread throughout the population, seen across age, income, and political affiliation. One key exception: consumers with the largest tercile of stock holdings posted a notable 11% increase in sentiment, supported by continued strength in stock markets. Interviews for this release closed prior to Tuesday’s elections.

Consumer Sentiment Declines to Near Lowest on Record

Bloomberg reports US Consumer Sentiment Declines to Near Lowest on Record

The preliminary November sentiment index dropped 3.3 points to 50.3, just above a June 2022 reading of 50 that was the weakest in University of Michigan data back to 1978. The gauge was lower than all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

A measure of current economic conditions slumped 6.3 points to a record low of 52.3 as anxiety mounted about the impact from the government shutdown.

The drop in overall sentiment was broad across age, income and political groups, the report showed. Among Democrats and political independents, confidence slid to the lowest in data back to 1984.

“Consumers perceive pressure on their personal finances from multiple directions,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement. “Consumers also anticipate that labor markets will continue to weaken in the future and expect to be personally affected.”

Consumer Sentiment Current Conditions vs Expectations

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Current Conditions and Expectations

Current conditions did hit a new all-time record low of 52.3 vs 53.8 during the covid pandemic.

Expectations are now 49.0 vs the pandemic low of 47.3.

Trump Doubles Down

NBC reports Trump doubles down on the economy despite a strong rebuke from voters

“We had the greatest economy in the history of our country,” Trump said of his first term in an interview with Norah O’Donnell for CBS’ “60 Minutes” a week ago. “But my second term is blowing it away.”

Two days later, voters blew away Republican candidates up and down the ballot in Virginia and New Jersey, results that reinforced NBC News polling showing that the vast majority of voters — about two-thirds — think the president hasn’t lived up to his promises to curb inflation and improve the economy. The common watchword for Democratic candidates who won on Tuesday — both progressives and centrists — was “affordability.”

Like Trump, Biden argued that the broader economy was strong, even as taxpayers suffered. And like Trump, Biden watched his party’s fortunes change at the ballot box a year after his own election.

“As our economy has come roaring back, we’ve seen some price increases,” Biden said in July 2021. “Some folks have raised worries that this could be a sign of persistent inflation. But that is not our view. Our experts believe, and the data shows, that most of the price increases we’ve seen are expected to be temporary.”

“The reason I don’t want to talk about affordability is because everybody knows that it’s far less expensive under Trump than it was under ‘Sleepy Joe Biden,’ and the prices are way down,” he said of his predecessor in remarks to reporters last week.

“The economic statistics may be great, and in President Biden’s case they were,” Democratic strategist Adrienne Elrod said in an exchange of text messages. “But when prices are too high and the messenger keeps saying ‘No, you’re wrong, the economy is actually fantastic,’ the messenger starts to lose credibility with voters.”

Hoot of the Day

Trump says he does not want to talk about affordability because it’s great.

Excuse me, but if affordability was great, Trump would not shut up about it.

Wossamotta U

Please play the video. It’s a riot. Canadian readers will especially enjoy it.

Trump Adopts Chicago Cubs’ Perpetual Message, “Wait Till Next Year”

On October 5, I noted Trump Adopts Chicago Cubs’ Perpetual Message, “Wait Till Next Year”

“One Big Beautiful Bill” did not resonate. Trump opts for “Wait Till 2026”.

Laffer, a free trade advocate understands he cannot say anything bad about tariffs or Trump will personally attack him.

Everyone in the administration understands the setup.

But “Wait Till 2026” is a fundamental mistake. When 2026 is bad, the message will have to change.

Here’s a Much Better Slogan for Trump

Trump Proposes $2,000 to Everyone

On November 9, I noted Trump Labels Those Against Tariffs as “Fools”, Proposes $2,000 to Everyone

Trump proposes another massive wealth redistribution scheme.

Four Trump Tariff Positions

1. Use Tariffs to eliminate the deficit and pay down debt
2. Use tariffs to bring production back to the US
3. Use tariffs as a redistribution scheme to give everyone $2,000
4. Use tariffs to pay for the damage Trump he caused to farmers

$2,000 Redistribution Math

• Total Population: 343 Million – Cost $686 Billion
• Noninstitutional Population Age 16+ of the US: 274 million – Cost $548 Billion
• Noninstitutional Population Subset: 200 Million – Cost $400 Billion

Since US consumers pay tariffs, what Trump proposes is one of the biggest wealth redistribution schemes in history.

And the redistribution schemes don’t stop there.

For discussion, please see How to Judge the Shutdown Deal: Look at the Reaction of Gold and Bonds

We have a deal. It will increase the deficit more than anyone can foresee now.

The direct cash to consumers is the start of Universal Basic Income (UBI). And now Republicans own that.

This mechanism once started will never end. Money handouts will go up and up and up.

It’s Trump’s Economy Now!

It’s Trump’s economy now and he is cracking under pressure.

He has resorted to buying votes with massive redistribution schemes hoping to cover up the mistakes of his foolish tariffs.

Consumers are not fooled with his “Wossamotta U” explanations that this is the best economy ever.

It’s pathetic, but Trump now sounds like Joe Biden.

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