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The Fed revised June consumer credit lower by 11.7 billion to -4.3 billion but revolving revised up.

Consumer Credit Revisions
 

Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars
 

Those are annualized numbers.

Growth looks huge but it’s misleading. It’s real (inflation-adjusted) growth that matters to GDP, not the nominal chart above.

Real Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars
 

Real revolving, total, and nonrevolving consumer credit are all below pre-pandemic levels.

Real nonrevolving excluding government (excluding student loans), is above pre-pandemic levels.

Revolving Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars
 

Turndowns in real revolving credit are recessionary.

Revolving Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars
 

Real revolving credit peaked this cycle at $1.087 trillion in October 2024. It fell to $1.039 trillion in December of 2024.

Since December 2024, real revolving credit has flatlined.

Real Consumer Credit Percent Change from Year Ago
 

Year-Over-Year Real Credit Details

• Revolving credit negative negative 8 straight months since December 2024.
• Total credit negative 10 straight months since October of 2024.
• Nonrevolving credit negative 25 straight months since June of 2023.
• Nonrevolving credit excluding consumer loans negative 20 straight months since December of 2023.

Revolving credit did not participate in the overall March bounce.

People are paying off their mortgages faster than they are buying new homes, taking out home improvement loans, and other lines of credit.

Every bit of this is recessionary.

Notably, this Fed data is very stale. It’s September 8, and we are looking at credit data for July.

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