The headline number of 108.3 was an increase of 8.1 from the final reading of 100.2 for November.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in December following back-to-back monthly declines. The Index now stands at 108.3 (1985=100), up sharply from 101.4 in November. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 147.2 from 138.3 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—improved to 82.4 from 76.7. However, Expectations are still lingering around 80—a level associated with recession.

“Consumer confidence bounced back in December, reversing consecutive declines in October and November to reach its highest level since April 2022,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation and Expectations Indexes improved due to consumers’ more favorable view regarding the economy and jobs. Inflation expectations retreated in December to their lowest level since September 2021, with recent declines in gas prices a major impetus. Vacation intentions improved but plans to purchase homes and big-ticket appliances cooled further. This shift in consumers’ preference from big-ticket items to services will continue in 2023, as will headwinds from inflation and interest rate hikes.” Read more

Putting the Latest Number in Context

The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end, we have highlighted recessions and included GDP.

Interestingly, the GDP regression has a slight negative slope while Consumer Confidence has been increasing over the same time frame (since the late 1970s). It's clear that consumer confidence begins falling shortly before official recession calls and the index has been in an overall decline since June of 2021.

For an additional perspective on consumer attitudes, see the most recent Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Here is the chart from that post.

And finally, let's take a look at the correlation between consumer confidence and small business sentiment, the latter by way of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index. As the chart illustrates, the two have tracked one another fairly closely since the onset of the Financial Crisis, although a spread appears infrequently, with the most recent spread showing up 2018 through present.

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