Image Source: Pixabay

This post was inspired by CCN and MSNBC rants over the price of eggs.

CPI food price data from the BLS, chart by Mish

I started a presidential year in February ending in January, but it makes little difference to these calculations.

Food Price Change Under Trump, Total 4 Years

• Food at Home: +6.3 Percent
• Food Away from Home: +12.4 Percent
• Meat, Fish, Poultry, Eggs: +9.4 Percent
• Dairy: +5.5 Percent
• Cereals: +4.4 Percent
• Fruits and Vegetables: +6.2 Percent

Food Price Change Under Biden, Total 4 Years

• Food at Home: +22.9 Percent
• Food Away from Home: +25.3 Percent
• Meat, Fish, Poultry, Eggs: +26.9 Percent
• Dairy: +17.2 Percent
• Cereals: +20.4 Percent
• Fruits and Vegetables: +14.6 Percent

Extra Inflation Biden vs Trump

• Food at Home: +16.6 Percent
• Food Away from Home: +12.9 Percent
• Meat, Fish, Poultry, Eggs: +17.5 Percent
• Dairy: +11.7 Percent
• Cereals: +16.0 Percent
• Fruits and Vegetables: +8.4 Percent

Let’s Discuss Eggs

In the 25 days since Trump’s inauguration, CNN has mentioned “egg prices” 45 times. But in the 25 days before the inauguration, CNN NEVER mentioned “egg prices.”

On MSNBC, in the 25 days since Trump’s inauguration, they mentioned “edge prices” 80 times. But in the 25 days before the inauguration, MSNBC mentioned “egg prices” just 1 time.

Eggs Percent of the CPI

Unfortunately, Fred (the St. Louis Fed Data Repository) from which I download data, does not have eggs individually.

Eggs are part of the broader CPI grouping meat, fish, poultry, and eggs.

For all this angst over eggs, the BLS notes eggs are 0.172 percent of the CPI. Food is 13.691 percent of the CPI.

This means eggs are only 1.3 percent of the average food basket.

CPI Food Index Levels Since 1970

CPI food price data from the BLS, chart by Mish

If we are going to start blaming presidents for food price (is that really a good idea?), then it’s pretty clear which president is to blame.

Expect Higher Food Prices

CPI and PPI food price data from the BLS, chart by Mish

Produce Price Index (PPI) food indexes only date to 2009 so the index starting date is different from the preceding charts.

Looking ahead, if the surge in PPI food prices sticks, the price of food is about to accelerate once again.

Immigration Policy and Inflation

Immigration policy will come into play many ways.

About a third of farm workers are illegal immigrants and that might have a big impact on food prices if labor prices or spoilage increase as a result of Trump actions.

On the other hand, the surge in immigration may have fueled a surge in the price of rent.

Then again, illegal immigration helped hold down labor costs on building homes. And illegal immigration provides many fast food and hotel cleaning jobs.

There are many immigration cross currents that are very difficult to access.

I suggest proceeding cautiously rather than the “Deport Them All” cries we hear.

Related Posts

February 12, 2025: CPI Much Hotter than Expected, Core CPI Hotter than Expected

Don’t expect the Fed to be cutting interest rates soon.

February 13, 2025: Producer Price Index (PPI) Soars Led by a Surge of Positive Revisions

The PPI was hotter than expected, and that was on top of huge positive revisions. But long-term bond yields dropped. Why?

November 7, 2024: The New Home for Hispanics is the Republican Party

Please play this PBS video interview of Florida rep. Maria Salazar on Hispanics, Trump, and deportations.

I am still hoping and somewhat expecting a sensible immigration policy. Deport them all will make a big mess. 

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