Oil prices are steady this morning near one month lows, after a tempestuous few days swinging around Russia peace deal headlines.

US President Donald Trump said “there are only a few remaining points of disagreement,” as he sent negotiators to more meetings, while the Ukrainian leader’s chief of staff said talks in Geneva had laid a “good foundation.”

Goldman said a peace deal may shave off about $5 a barrel from its base-case forecast of $56 next year.

“That would put Brent in 2026 in the low $50s,” analyst Daan Struyven told Bloomberg TV.

API reported a lackluster set of inventory data that calmed the market too...

API

• Crude -1.86mm

• Cushing

• Gasoline +539k

• Distillates +753k

DOE

• Crude +2.774mm

• Cushing -68k

• Gasoline +2.513mm

• Distillates +1.147mm

US Crude stocks rose for the 3rd time in the last four weeks as did product inventories...
 

Source: Bloomberg
 

... while Cushing stocks continue to test 'tank bottoms'...
 

Source: Bloomberg
 

US Crude production continues to hover near record highs...

Source: Bloomberg
 

WTI is hovering around $58, near one-month lows...
 

Source: Bloomberg
 

Much of Russia’s oil and fuel is subject to heavy Western sanctions, with US restrictions on the two biggest producers kicking in last week. However, China, India, and Turkey have been eager buyers of the discounted crude, so the impact on global prices from any lifting of curbs is hard to gauge.

“Minute adjustments between the US, Russia, Ukraine and the EU on proposed peace deals have been carefully digested by the market,” Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford wrote in a note.

“Any positive signs of collaboration or agreement have resulted in short-term sell-offs, while the dialing-back of enthusiasm has bolstered prices.”

Oil has retreated by more than a fifth since the middle of June as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies restored barrels, while producers outside of the group also pumped more. Worldwide crude supply is expected to exceed demand by a record 4 million barrels a day next year, the International Energy Agency forecast this month.

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