WTI Price Forecast: Bias Stays Lower With RSI Below 50 And Key SMAs Overhead

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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil is attempting a modest rebound on Monday, snapping a three-day losing streak as traders balance revived December Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut expectations with ongoing Russia–Ukraine peace-talk developments. At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $58.40, recovering from near one-month lows around $57.33.
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From a technical point of view, WTI remains confined within a well-defined downward parallel channel on the daily chart, characterized by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, keeping the broader outlook tilted to the downside. Prices continue to trade below both the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), reinforcing a bearish structural bias.

On the upside, $59.00 could act as the initial resistance before WTI retests the upper boundary of the channel near $60.50. The $60.50-$61.50 region marks a strong confluence barrier, where repeated attempts to break higher have failed since late October.

This zone also aligns with the 50-day SMA around $60.54 and previous support turned resistance, adding to the headwinds. Unless this area is cleared decisively, momentum is likely to remain in favour of sellers. A firm breakout would expose the 100-day SMA next, followed by the September swing high near $66.19.

On the downside, the fresh one-month low at $57.33 offers immediate support, with the October swing low around $56.00 as the next level to watch in case of further weakness.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) is holding below the 50 midline, currently around 43, indicating subdued momentum and a lack of firm bullish conviction at this stage.


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