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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil edges lower on Tuesday, giving back the previous day’s gains as traders weigh the modest OPEC+ production hike against persistent oversupply concerns and subdued global demand. At the time of writing, WTI is changing hands near $61.00 per barrel, down nearly 0.85% on the day, as a firmer US Dollar (USD) also caps upside momentum.

On the fundamental side, sentiment remains fragile despite OPEC+’s smaller-than-expected output hike of 137,000 barrels per day for November. The modest move has calmed fears of an immediate supply glut, but it has not been enough to spark a sustained rally as global demand concerns persist. Reports of a drone hit on Russia’s Kirishi refinery have added a touch of geopolitical risk premium, but flows remain largely unaffected so far.

Traders are also looking ahead to the American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory report, due later Tuesday, and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on Wednesday for near-term cues.
 

On the technical front, WTI remains vulnerable below the $61.50 level, which has turned into near-term resistance after previously acting as support since early August. The commodity continues to trade below the 21, 50 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) on the daily chart, underscoring a prevailing bearish structure.

A sustained drop below $61.00 could pave the way for a retest of the $60.22 low hit last week, the lowest level since May 30, with further losses potentially extending toward the May 30 swing low at $59.39.

Momentum indicators also underscore the fragile tone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 42, indicating a weak buying impulse, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains below zero despite showing tentative signs of flattening. Unless prices close back above $61.50–62.00, any recovery is likely to be viewed as corrective rather than signaling a shift in trend.

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