WTI Price Analysis: Struggles Below $74.00, Seems Vulnerable To Slide Further

  • WTI drifts into negative territory for the fourth straight day on Tuesday.
  • Demand concerns weigh on the commodity amid a notable USD demand.
  • The worsening Middle East crisis might help limit losses for the black liquid. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices attract fresh sellers following an intraday uptick to the $74.00/barrel mark and turn lower for the fourth successive day on Tuesday. The commodity trades around the mid-$72.00s during the early part of the European session, albeit manages to hold above its lowest level since January 17 touched on Monday.

Concerns about an economic downturn in the US and China – the world's two largest economies – continue to act as a headwind for Crude Oil prices. Adding to this, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying – bolstered by a bound in the US Treasury bond yields – exerts additional pressure on the USD-denominated commodity. That said, concerns about supply disruptions from the Middle East, amid the risk of a broader conflict in the key Oil producing region, could help limit losses for the black liquid. 

From a technical perspective, the recent breakdown through and repeated failures near the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) favors bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining negative traction and are still away from being in the oversold territory. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for Crude Oil prices is to the downside and supports prospects for an extension of the downward trajectory witnessed over the past month or so.

In the meantime, the $72.00 round figure is likely to protect the immediate downside ahead of the overnight swing low, around the $71.20-$71.15 region. Some follow-through selling below the $71.00 mark will reaffirm the negative bias and make Crude Oil prices vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards intermediate support near mid-$70.00s en route to the $70.00 psychological mark. The depreciating move could extend further towards the next relevant support near the $69.60-$69.50 horizontal zone.

On the flip side, any meaningful recovery attempt now seems to confront stiff resistance near the daily swing high, around the $74.00 mark. A sustained strength beyond might trigger a short-covering rally and lift Crude Oil prices to the $74.90-$75.00 region. The recovery momentum could extend further towards the next relevant hurdle near the $75.60 zone en route to the $76.00 round-figure mark. The latter should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders and cap any further upside for the commodity.

WTI daily chart

(Click on image to enlarge)

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