WTI Elliott Wave Analysis

WTI completed the bullish correction from September 2024 and now turning lower after being resisted at a ket Fibonacci zone. It appears the decline from the 15 January top will extend much lower to continue the near-term bearish cycle from July 2024 and the larger bearish cycle from March 2022.

Daily Chart Analysis

In the long-term, the price is correcting the 5-wave impulse rally that followed after the COVID-19 crude oil collapse. At nearly $131 on 7th March 2022, prices reached the peak of this impulse wave advance. According to the Elliott wave theory, a 3-wave correction follows a 5-wave trend. This bearish correction has evolved as a double zigzag and appears incomplete. Thus, the downside is favored to continue in the medium to long term. Wave ((W)) ended in May 2023 and was followed by a 14-month sideways triangle structure for ((X)). Wave ((X)) finished in July 2024 at just $84.5. As the daily chart shows, wave ((Y)) started at the July 2024 high. We should expect wave (W) of ((Y)) to evolve lower. Wave W and X of ((Y)) are already finished and Y is evolving lower.

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H4 Chart Analysis

The H4 chart shows the sub-waves of X while the decline from X has completed or is close to completing a 5-wave down for what could be wave ((a)) of Y. From the wave ((b)) of Y, sellers should find opportunities again while price commodity trades below the January 2025 top where wave X finished.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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