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At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.69% (for the week -1.41%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.97% (for the week -2.40%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was down 2.61% (for the week -3.79%). Stocks in the US fell sharply on Friday amid growing concerns about inflation and trade policy uncertainty. Technology giants led the decline, with Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta down more than 4% each and Microsoft down 3%. Worries about inflation intensified after the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment data for March showed the highest long-term inflation expectations since 1993. Meanwhile, the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, rose by 2.8% in February, exceeding expectations, and consumer spending rose by 0.4%. Investors expected further trade shocks as Trump’s 25% tariff on automobiles takes effect this week, raising fears of retaliation from key trading partners.

Bank of America expects a challenging reporting season, projecting a 1% decline in first-quarter revenue, down three percentage points from the previous quarter and 3% below consensus estimates.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.43 per US dollar amid rising trade tensions and weak GDP data weighing on the Loonie. Concerns stem from the prospect of additional US tariffs on Canadian auto parts and related exports. Measures could extend to key sectors such as auto components, raw materials, and lumber. Adding to this uncertainty, Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned that Canada is prepared to take retaliatory trade measures, adding to the trade conflict. Meanwhile, uncertainty over Bank of Canada policy — amid preliminary data on likely stagnant GDP growth in February — has led to expectations of looser monetary policy compared to the US Federal Reserve, further narrowing the yield differential.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.96% (for the week -2.66%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.93% (for the week -2.33%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.84% (for the week -0.89%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.08% (for the week +0.14%). European equities closed lower on Friday, continuing to be impacted by concerns over global economic growth following US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement and less-than-encouraging US economic data, including PCE Core Price Index data. Inflation data in Spain and France showed weaker-than-expected results, with French inflation holding steady at 0.9% and Spanish inflation falling to 2.2%.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.8% on Friday to hit $69.4 per barrel, on concerns that ongoing trade tensions, especially between the US and key trading partners, could trigger a global recession. Despite this, oil prices recorded their third consecutive weekly gain, helped by US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran. The US crude stockpile data showed a 3.3 million barrel decline, indicating continued strong demand. The OPEC+ group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will begin a gradual increase in production in April, and reports suggest the group is likely to continue raising output in May.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.32%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.36%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.16%. The Nikkei 225 Index (JP225) fell nearly 4% on Monday to its lowest level in six months, as investors reacted to weakness on Wall Street and prepared for new US tariffs that will take effect this week. President Donald Trump is set to impose 25% tariffs on imported cars, a major blow to Japan’s key auto export sector, and outlined plans for retaliatory trade duties. Domestically, investors digested mixed economic data, with industrial production in February beating expectations and retail sales falling short of projections. All sectors declined, with sharp losses in the technology, consumer discretionary, and industrial sectors.

South Korea, China, and Japan held their first economic dialogue in five years on Sunday, seeking to promote regional trade as the three Asian export powers suffer from tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. The dialogue aims to strengthen the implementation of the RCEP, in which all three countries are participating, and create a framework for enhanced trade cooperation among the three countries.

• S&P 500 (US500) 5,580.94 −112.37 (−1.97%)
• Dow Jones (US30) 41,583.90 −715.80 (−1.69%)
• DAX (DE40) 22,461.52 −217.22 (−0.96%)
• FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,658.85 −7.27 (−0.08%)
• USD Index 104.01 −0.32 (−0.31%)

News feed for: 2025.03.31

• Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
• Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
• China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
• China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
• German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
• US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

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