In some ways the energy markets have had a false sense of security about being able to meet demand without a problem considering the fact they really haven’t been challenged with a cold blast like this perhaps for over a decade. Winter Storm Fern is causing relentless cold blast and ice and is creating challenges causing power outages and raising concerns about its overall impact on the overall economy and the steps that are being taken to keep the lights on and people safe and warm. America’s power grids are fighting hard, scrambling to keep the lights on as a bitter Arctic blast tightens its icy grip over nearly the entire lower 48 of the Country. Fox Weather reported that this deadly, historic 2,000-mile-wide winter storm peaked Sunday, unleashing heavy snow, crippling ice and days of life-threatening travel conditions for more than 245 million people from New Mexico to Maine through Monday morning. At least three have been confirmed dead by state officials, linking their deaths to the extreme cold from the storm. The storm has caused natural gas futures to skyrocket at an unprecedented pace as this historic winter storm grips the nation, causing extreme cold and skyrocketing heating demand.

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Over the past month, Henry Hub NYMEX contracts have jumped by more than 70%—the largest spike seen in decades. Prices soared above $6/MMBtu for the first time since 2022, with a dramatic overnight rally of about 18% following the latest cold blast. These volatile price movements are directly tied to escalating heating needs, massive, expected storage withdrawals, and production setbacks from freeze-offs. The market remains on edge, reacting to every new cold forecast and storm update, and the situation is changing rapidly as the brutal weather continues its assault and shows why you need to download the Fox Weather ap.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright has taken a front-and-center role as Winter Storm Fern pummels the nation, driving unprecedented demand and grid stress. Wright has been laser-focused on grid reliability and preventing blackouts, issuing urgent calls to grid operators to ramp up preparations and tap into as much as 35 gigawatts of backup generation—including diesel generators and even data centers. His message is clear: “With the winter storm quickly approaching, we’re going to do everything we can to keep the lights on and to keep power prices down for all Americans.” The Department of Energy, under his direction, rolled out emergency orders for the Mid-Atlantic, New England, and Texas grids, determined to shore up stability and save lives as the cold bites deeper. Wright also echoed President Trump’s energy priorities, stressing the administration’s commitment to affordable, reliable, and secure energy during this historic blast. Yet Winter Storm Fern continues to hammer communities from New Mexico to Maine, federal coordination is in high gear to protect lives and keep the lights on as the winter assault stretches grids to the breaking point.

President Trump has commented on the storm, describing it as historic and severe while tying it to his long-standing skepticism of climate change narratives. He has also noted administration coordination for response. His main public statement (via Truth Social, quoted in multiple reports was: “Record Cold Wave expected to hit 40 States. Rarely seen anything like it before. Could the Environmental Insurrectionists please explain — WHATEVER HAPPENED TO GLOBAL WARMING???” updates on federal reparations, such as: “I have been briefed on the Record Cold Wave and Historic Winter Storm that will be hitting much of the United States this weekend.

President Trump and his administration are in full crisis mode, pulling out all the stops in response to Winter Storm Fern’s relentless assault. The White House, working in lockstep with state and local leaders, has FEMA on high alert and ready to roll wherever the ice and cold hit hardest. Trump has greenlit federal emergency disaster declarations for several battered states, calling the storm “historic” and emphasizing the administration’s hands-on approach. The focus is clear: keep the lights on, restore power, protect Americans, and ensure no one is left out in the cold. The energy grid’s resilience, swift action from federal and state agencies, and close coordination are taking center stage as the nation’s weather’s widespread outages, grounded flights, and record-setting cold in a storm for the ages.

As of early today there are approximately 821,169 customers nationwide remain without power due to Winter Storm Fern with Tennessee is the hardest hit, with about 248,520 customers out (7.2% of the state), followed by Mississippi with 157,785 outages (10.79%), Louisiana with 124,009 (5.35%), Texas with 58,921, and Kentucky with 50,097. Outages peaked above 1 million over the weekend but have slowly declined thanks to ongoing restoration work, though progress is hampered by persistent ice and cold, prolonging outages in some areas. Utilities, especially in Tennessee and Mississippi, warn that repairs may take several days due to widespread tree and ice damage to power lines.

The storm has also caused several fatalities (estimates range from 6 to over 13 across multiple states), thousands of flight cancellations, hazardous travel, and widespread closures of schools and government offices. The situation highlights vulnerabilities in the energy sector not seen in a decade, and authorities urge affected residents to remain cautious and prioritize safety as cold conditions persist. On Saturday, Bloomberg reported that MISO declared a level two emergency for northern and central grid areas from 4:36 a.m. to 11 a.m. EST due to forced generation outages, below-normal temperatures, and limited power transfer ability. According to MISO guidelines, EEA-2 includes public requests to conserve energy and may lead to emergency demand curtailment. Naureen S. Malik of Bloomberg also reported that the largest US grid operator is pushing power plants to secure natural gas supplies through the week amid expectations that frigid temperatures will drive electricity usage to a winter record.

PJM Interconnection LLC is taking a rare step of committing to buy power from generators through 10am on Jan. 31, as opposed to its typical method of making day-ahead purchases, staff said in a weather briefing with members Sunday evening. The commitments will allow power plants to proactively procure gas supplies even as curtailed production and rising demand lift prices to the highest since 2022. PJM, which manages the grid serving nearly a fifth of Americans from the Midwest to the mid-Atlantic, also asked dual-fuel generators to procure and burn gas supplies to preserve oil for later in the week, according to staff. Soaring gas prices have made it more economic to burn oil on the East Coast, and the fuel was producing about 5.8 gigawatts Sunday evening, or 4.6% of the generation mix, PJM data show.

PJM, based in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, expects peak demand may exceed 130 gigawatts for seven straight days—a record winter streak—yet staff believe supply will meet demand. Currently, ample gas supplies are available due to lower LNG export demand and increased Canadian imports balancing reduced domestic production.

Northern Virginia, home to the country’s largest cluster of data centers, presents a test for the grid’s stability. PJM is collaborating with the US Energy Department and tech firms to use backup diesel generators at data centers during emergencies instead of rotating blackouts. Non-disclosure agreements are being signed with operators to access sensitive information, and this capability is expected to be ready later this week.

Typically, February natural gas prices being the front month as is expected, will surge well above those for March contract. Call Phil Flynn 888-264-5665 to get involved. The main factor will be whether the current cold spell lasts beyond expiration later this week. If forecasts keep predicting more Arctic weather into next week, we may see March contracts begin to rise as soon as the February contract expires. This might be time to look at option plays accordingly.

This comes as Europe finally seems to be committed to stopping natural gas imports from Russia. Reuters reported that European Union countries on Monday gave their final approval to ban Russian gas imports by late 2027, making their vow to cut ties with their former top supplier legally binding, nearly four years after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ministers from EU countries approved the law at a meeting Hungary said it would challenge the law at the European Court of Justice. Better late than never, I guess.

The other key thing to watch is the oil market which has been rather subdued even as geopolitical risk factors rise. We know that the heating oil is starting to move on the cold temperatures and it would have moved more if it wasn’t for the fact that we were getting more heavy oil from Venezuela but the other key of course is the Iran situation. As the reports of the massacre of Iranian people by the Ayatollah is raising the odds that President Trump will lash out at Iran in some shape or form.

The Jersulam Post Reported that as many as 30,000 people may have been killed across Iran during a two-day crackdown on January 8 and 9, TIME reported on Sunday, citing two senior Health Ministry officials and a separate compilation of hospital data shared with the publication. The figures have not been independently verified and far exceed numbers publicly cited by authorities. The number, if true, would massively increase the death toll from previously believed estimates. Days after the alleged massacre, Iran International estimated around 12,000 deaths from the two-day period.

The officials said the scale of killing overwhelmed the capacity to handle the dead, exhausting body bag stocks, and prompting the use of eighteen-wheeled trailers to move bodies. TIME reported that security forces used rooftop snipers and trucks mounted with heavy machine guns after authorities cut communications. An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps official warned on state television that anyone entering the streets should not complain if a bullet hits them, according to the report.

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