This week, the oil market saw a rebound after a period of soft trading, driven by global tensions.
Brent prices surged to $86/bbl following a terrorist attack in Russia, while ongoing drone strikes on Russian refineries by Ukraine kept the oil market's risk premium elevated. In the US, the number of oil rigs decreased slightly, reaching 509 for the week ended March 22, 2024.
The total rig count, combining oil and gas, stood at 624, down from 629 the previous week.
Speculators showed increased confidence in the market, with net long positions rising for both NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures contracts. NYMEX WTI saw a 50,072 lot increase, reaching 219,965 lots, while ICE Brent net longs rose by 54,830 lots to 288,988 lots, the highest level since March 2023.
Overall, the oil market's upward momentum persists, supported by geopolitical tensions and investor optimism, particularly regarding supply constraints and demand outlook. There is also a noteworthy period of seasonal strength for WTI crude oil between March 31st and April 18.
The average return has been 1.58% and over the last 254 years, the pattern has a 60% winning trade percentage. There have also been three periods of double-digit returns in 2001, 2008, and 2015. So, with oil sitting above major support at $80, can we see a bounce from that level in line with the seasonal pattern for gains? The major trade risk here is that previous seasonal trends do not necessarily repeat themselves again each year.
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
